406 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 141456
 TCDEP5
 
 HURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
 800 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014
 
 After rapidly strengthening during the past 24 hours, it appears
 that the intensity of Odile has leveled off for now.  Microwave
 images indicate that the cyclone has a double eyewall structure,
 with the inner eyewall surrounding the 10-15 n mi diameter eye, and
 the outer one located about 40-50 n mi from the center.  Satellite
 intensity estimates remain 115 kt, and that value is kept for the
 initial wind speed.  An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is
 scheduled to investigate Odile later today, and should provide a
 better assessment of the strength and structure of this hurricane.
 
 The major hurricane is moving northwestward at about 12 kt, steered
 by a ridge located to its northeast.  A continued northwestward
 motion is expected during the next 3 to 4 days with a gradual
 decrease in forward speed due to a strengthening trough off the U.S.
 west coast.  By the end of the forecast period, the shallow cyclone
 is expected to become stationary or drift eastward in the low-level
 flow.  The models are tightly clustered for most of the forecast
 period, and the NHC track forecast is close to the consensus aids.
 This track takes the center of Odile very near the southern Baja
 California west coast later today, and then just offshore
 and parallel to the coast for the next several days.
 
 The observed concentric eyewall structure, which is fairly common
 in mature hurricanes like Odile, typically causes intensity
 fluctuations in the short term, and the NHC intensity forecast
 shows little change in strength during the next 24 hours.  Odile
 will be moving over cool water and into a drier airmass in 36 to 48
 hours.  These unfavorable thermodynamic conditions should cause the
 cyclone to quickly weaken. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to
 the previous one, and not too different than the intensity model
 consensus, IVCN.
 
 Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, as
 strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center of
 Odile.  In addition, moisture from a disturbance over northeastern
 Mexico and the Pacific ITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile's
 circulation northwestward across Mexico into the southwestern United
 States by early next week.   This could result in heavy rains and
 life-threatening flash flooding in those areas.  Please see
 information from your local weather office for more details.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  14/1500Z 20.0N 108.2W  115 KT 135 MPH
  12H  15/0000Z 21.7N 109.6W  120 KT 140 MPH
  24H  15/1200Z 23.5N 111.4W  120 KT 140 MPH
  36H  16/0000Z 24.9N 112.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
  48H  16/1200Z 25.9N 113.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
  72H  17/1200Z 27.5N 115.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
  96H  18/1200Z 28.1N 116.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 120H  19/1200Z 28.3N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi