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 708 
 WTPZ25 KNHC 140241
 TCMEP5
 
 HURRICANE ODILE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
 0300 UTC SUN SEP 14 2014
 
 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
 THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
 WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM CABO SAN LAZARO SOUTHWARD...
 AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM LA PAZ
 SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.
 
 THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE WEST
 COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO
 PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO...AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
 SUR FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO LORETO.
 
 THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
 THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES...
 AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ
 TO LORETO.
 
 THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
 WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO
 TO PUNTA ABREOJOS...AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
 FROM NORTH OF LORETO TO MULEGE.
 
 SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
 * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM CABO SAN LAZARO TO LA PAZ
 
 A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
 * THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF CABO SAN
 LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO
 * THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
 LORETO
 
 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
 * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES
 * THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
 LORETO
 
 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
 * THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF PUERTO SAN
 ANDRESITO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS
 * THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LORETO TO
 MULEGE
 
 A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
 SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
 TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
 PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
 AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
 A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
 WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
 BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
 WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
 DANGEROUS.
 
 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
 EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
 POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
 INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD
 CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.
 
 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 106.5W AT 14/0300Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  962 MB
 EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
 64 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
 50 KT....... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
 34 KT.......160NE 160SE 160SW 100NW.
 12 FT SEAS..150NE 300SE 270SW 180NW.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 106.5W AT 14/0300Z
 AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 106.2W
 
 FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.2N 107.5W
 MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
 64 KT... 45NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
 50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 34 KT...160NE 160SE 150SW 100NW.
 
 FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 21.4N 109.3W
 MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
 64 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
 50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 100NW.
 
 FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 23.2N 111.0W
 MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 64 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
 50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 34 KT...150NE 140SE 130SW  90NW.
 
 FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 24.6N 112.4W
 MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
 34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW  80NW.
 
 FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 26.5N 114.5W
 MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW  70NW.
 
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
 ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
 OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 28.0N 116.0W
 MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
 OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 29.0N 116.5W
 MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 106.5W
 
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z
 
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
 
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