496 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 131459
 TCDEP5
 
 HURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014
 
 The first-light visible satellite images show that Odile has
 continued to become better organized.  The central dense overcast
 has become much more symmetric with some hints of an eye, which is
 consistent with a TRMM microwave pass from around 1200 UTC.  A blend
 of the satellite intensity estimates gives 70 kt as the initial wind
 speed.  Further strengthening seems likely over the next day or so
 given the very warm waters and low shear.  Steady or even rapid
 intensification appears to be most probable during that time, and
 the NHC forecast continues the trend of the last forecast to be
 above almost all of the guidance.  Odile could start to weaken on
 Monday since it is forecast to pass near the cold wake of Norbert,
 with generally cooler waters expected after that time. The NHC
 forecast is blended with the previous NHC prediction and the
 intensity consensus.
 
 The TRMM pass gives a more confident initial motion estimate of
 310/5.  Odile should accelerate northwestward by late today as a
 mid-level ridge amplifies to the northeast of the cyclone. However,
 significant spread remains in the model guidance near and after 24
 hours, with a fair number of models close to Baja California Sur.
 The subtropical ridge strength over the eastern Pacific, along with
 any potential interaction with Tropical Depression 16-E, is making
 this forecast rather complicated.  With little change to the
 guidance this cycle, the new NHC forecast track will remain close to
 the previous one.   Given the spread in the guidance, confidence
 remains below normal in the details of the track forecast, including
 the potential threat to Baja California.  Depending on the 1200 UTC
 model cycle, additional watches and/or warnings could be needed for
 portions of the Baja California peninsula later today.
 
 Moisture from a disturbance over northeastern Mexico and the Pacific
 ITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile's circulation northwestward
 across Mexico into the southwestern United States for early next
 week.   This could result in heavy rains and life-threatening
 flash flooding in those areas.  Please see information from your
 local weather office for more details.  This is a similar pattern
 which occurred early this week with Norbert and the remnants of
 Dolly.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  13/1500Z 16.6N 106.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
  12H  14/0000Z 17.3N 106.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
  24H  14/1200Z 18.9N 108.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
  36H  15/0000Z 20.6N 110.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
  48H  15/1200Z 22.1N 111.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
  72H  16/1200Z 24.4N 114.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
  96H  17/1200Z 26.5N 116.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 120H  18/1200Z 27.5N 117.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake