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 083 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 120840
 TCDEP5
 
 TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
 200 AM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014
 
 Deep convection has recently redeveloped closer to the center of
 Odile, as the shear is perhaps beginning to weaken a bit over the
 cyclone. Data from two ASCAT passes and a blend of the latest Dvorak
 estimates from TAFB and SAB support maintaining the initial
 intensity at 50 kt. The SHIPS model shows the vertical shear
 gradually decreasing over the cyclone during the next day or so,
 which should allow for gradual intensification in the next 12 hours
 and steadier strengthening after that time. The intensity guidance
 continues to trend lower this cycle, and the NHC forecast has again
 been adjusted downward, but still shows Odile becoming a hurricane
 in about 24 hours and reaching a peak intensity of 85 kt in 72
 hours. Late in the period, the cyclone will begin moving over cooler
 waters, which should result in steady weakening. The NHC forecast is
 above the latest IVCN consensus and is close to the SHIPS model at
 36 hours and beyond.
 
 Odile has moved little since the previous advisory, as the cyclone
 remains in a region of weak steering currents. The best estimate of
 the initial motion is a westward drift at 2 kt. A slow westward to
 west-northwestward drift is expected during the next 12 to 24 hours,
 followed by a gradual acceleration toward the northwest as a
 mid-level ridge amplifies to the northeast of the cyclone. Overall,
 the track guidance remains in general agreement on this scenario,
 but much of the guidance has shifted to the right at days 4 and 5.
 The new NHC forecast has been adjusted in that direction and is
 close to the EMCWF at the end of the period, but now lies to the
 left of the TVCE multi-model consensus.
 
 The initial 34-kt wind radii have been adjusted based on data from
 the aforementioned ASCAT passes, which show a large wind field in
 the southern semicircle.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  12/0900Z 15.5N 104.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  12/1800Z 15.4N 105.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  13/0600Z 15.6N 105.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
  36H  13/1800Z 16.4N 106.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
  48H  14/0600Z 17.8N 108.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
  72H  15/0600Z 20.9N 112.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
  96H  16/0600Z 23.5N 115.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 120H  17/0600Z 25.0N 118.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan
 
 
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