182 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 112036
 TCDEP5
 
 TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
 200 PM PDT THU SEP 11 2014
 
 Conventional satellite imagery shows a sheared tropical storm with
 the center of circulation just beneath the northeastern edge of the
 deep convective cloud canopy.  Although the shear appears to have
 increased a bit this afternoon, convective spiral banding features
 have become better organized, and a blend of the latest Dvorak
 satellite intensity estimates reflect this overall improvement.
 Subsequently, the initial intensity is raised to 50 kt.  The
 intensity forecast remains unchanged for this advisory with the
 northeasterly shear relaxing in 24-36 hours.  Through the remaining
 portion of the forecast, the global models and the SHIPS intensity
 model indicate an upper-wind environment conducive for strengthening
 through day 5.  The official intensity forecast shows this
 intensification trend with Odile becoming a major hurricane in 3
 days.
 
 The initial motion is slightly left of the previous track and is
 estimated to be toward the west-southwest or 255/02.  This general
 motion, although somewhat erratic, should continue during the
 next 12-24 hours at which time Odile should begin a northwestward
 motion in response to a mid-level ridge building to the northeast
 of the cyclone.  Odile is forecast to maintain this northwestward
 track with a gradual increase in forward speed through the
 remainder of the forecast period.  The official NHC forecast is
 again shifted a bit to the left of the previous forecast track
 and splits between the TVCE and GFEX dynamical consensus models.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  11/2100Z 15.1N 104.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  12/0600Z 15.1N 104.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  12/1800Z 15.3N 105.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
  36H  13/0600Z 15.7N 105.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
  48H  13/1800Z 16.6N 106.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
  72H  14/1800Z 19.4N 110.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
  96H  15/1800Z 22.2N 113.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 120H  16/1800Z 24.0N 117.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Roberts