998 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 110240
 TCDEP5
 
 TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
 800 PM PDT WED SEP 10 2014
 
 Odile's low-level center remains exposed on the northeastern edge
 of the deep convection due to about 15 kt of north-northeasterly
 shear.  The Dvorak satellite estimate from TAFB is still 45 kt,
 while the estimate from SAB has increased to 35 kt, so the initial
 intensity is raised to 40 kt.  The vertical shear is expected to
 gradually abate during the next 24 or so, which should allow Odile
 to steadily strengthen.  After that time, low shear and very warm
 waters should support a faster rate of intensification, and Odile
 is forecast to become a hurricane in about 36 hours.  The SHIPS
 model is still the most aggressive intensity model, showing Odile
 reaching major hurricane status by day 3.  The NHC intensity
 forecast is very close to an average of the SHIPS and LGEM models
 and is only a little higher than the previous forecast at days 3
 and 4.
 
 Odile is slowing down in weak steering flow, and the initial motion
 estimate is 310/3 kt.  The cyclone is expected to remain in
 this environment for another 48 hours and will likely meander or
 drift generally west-northwestward during this time.  By day 3, a
 mid-level high over the northern Gulf of Mexico is forecast to
 expand westward over Mexico and cause Odile to accelerate toward
 the northwest through the end of the forecast period.  The track
 guidance has again shifted westward on this cycle, and now all of
 the models, except for the GFDL, bring the center of Odile west of
 the Baja California peninsula on days 4 and 5.  The updated NHC
 track forecast lies to the west of the previous forecast and the
 model consensus TVCE, especially after 48 hours.  However, the most
 reliable global models, the GFS and ECMWF, are even farther west,
 and additional adjustments to the NHC forecast may be required on
 future advisories.
 
 Even though the forecast track has shifted a little further away
 from the Mexican coast, there is a lot of uncertainty about how big
 Odile's wind field will get in a couple of days.  Most of the
 guidance shows a significant increase in the 34-kt wind radii, and
 on this basis, the Government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm
 watch for the southwestern coast of Mexico from Lazaro Cardenas to
 Manzanillo.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  11/0300Z 15.5N 103.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  11/1200Z 15.6N 103.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  12/0000Z 15.6N 104.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  12/1200Z 15.7N 104.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  13/0000Z 16.2N 104.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
  72H  14/0000Z 18.0N 106.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
  96H  15/0000Z 21.0N 110.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 120H  16/0000Z 24.0N 113.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Berg