125 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 100833
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162008
 200 AM PDT FRI OCT 10 2008
  
 A LARGE BURST OF VERY COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER AND
 SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. SATELLITE
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AND T3.0/45 KT FROM
 SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT IS A BLEND OF THESE TWO VALUES.
 OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHEAST.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/08. ODILE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
 IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION...ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE
 SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO...AS THE CYCLONE IS
 STEERED AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT
 EXTENDS EAST-WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO CENTRAL AND
 NORTHERN MEXICO. MOST OF THE MODELS WEAKEN ODILE DOWN TO A REMNANT
 LOW OR DISSIPATE IT COMPLETELY WITHIN 48 HOURS...WHICH APPEARS TO
 BE EXCESSIVE SINCE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS
 THAN 20 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
 IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS
 THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS...AND AFTERWARD FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS
 ADVISORY TRACK AND THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN DEPICTED
 BY THE GFS-BASED BAMM AND BAMD MODELS.
  
 ODILE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO
 EASTERLY SHEAR CONDITIONS AND OVER WARM SSTS OF 29C OR HIGHER
 THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONLY CAVEAT IS THAT HURRICANE
 NORBERT HAS LEFT A TRAIL OF COLD UPWELLED WATER BETWEEN ROUGHLY 14N
 AND 16N LATITUDE TO THE WEST OF 100W LONGITUDE. IF ODILE REMAINS
 JUST NORTH OF THAT COOLER WATER...BUT FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO NOT
 INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO...THEN THE CYCLONE
 COULD BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE
 OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
 IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS THROUGH 72 HOURS
 ...AND THEN CLOSER TO THE SHIPS MODEL AFTER THAT.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      10/0900Z 14.2N  96.7W    50 KT
  12HR VT     10/1800Z 14.8N  97.8W    55 KT
  24HR VT     11/0600Z 15.6N  99.4W    60 KT
  36HR VT     11/1800Z 16.4N 101.3W    60 KT
  48HR VT     12/0600Z 17.3N 103.0W    65 KT
  72HR VT     13/0600Z 18.6N 105.5W    65 KT
  96HR VT     14/0600Z 19.7N 107.4W    60 KT
 120HR VT     15/0600Z 20.5N 109.5W    55 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART