734 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 092032
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162008
 200 PM PDT THU OCT 09 2008
 
 THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE-OBSERVED CLOUD
 PATTERN SINCE THIS MORNING...ALBEIT THE BANDING FEATURES ARE
 PERHAPS A LITTLE LESS PROMINENT AT THIS TIME.  DVORAK INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES ARE ALSO UNCHANGED.  THEREFORE THE WIND SPEED IS HELD AT
 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO
 BE WELL-DEFINED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION BUT
 RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHEAST.  EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
 CONTINUE AFFECTING ODILE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THAT SHEAR IS
 PREDICTED TO INCREASE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER THE
 LATEST SHIPS RUN...USING THE GFS OUTPUT...DOES NOT PREDICT THE
 SHEAR TO BE QUITE AS STRONG AS IN THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS. 
 SO...THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE LESS WEAKENING LATE IN
 THE PERIOD.  OF COURSE...IF ODILE WERE TO INTERACT WITH LAND THE
 INTENSITY EVOLUTION WOULD BE SUBSTANTIALLY DIFFERENT THAN INDICATED
 HERE.
 
 AFTER THE MORE WESTWARD MOTION NOTED THIS MORNING...THE TRACK HAS
 TURNED BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...OR 290/10.  NOT MUCH ADJUSTMENT
 IS MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA
 OVER NORTHERN MEXICO SHOULD PROVIDE A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
 STEERING CURRENT FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A SELECTIVE CONSENSUS OF
 THE DYNAMICAL MODELS THAT EXCLUDES THE LATEST U.K. MET. OFFICE RUN. 
 IN THE LATTER MODEL'S FORECAST...THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CENTER OF
 ODILE IS COMPLETELY SHEARED OFF AND PROCEEDS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
 NEAR THE COAST WHEREAS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LEFT BEHIND TO
 MEANDER AND WEAKEN NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  THIS SCENARIO DOES
 NOT SEEM REALISTIC AT THIS TIME.
 
 THE LATEST NHC FORECAST...LIKE THE EARLIER ONES...KEEPS THE CENTER
 OFFSHORE OF THE COAST THROUGH 5 DAYS.  HOWEVER SOME OF THE TRACK
 MODELS...NOTABLY THE HWRF AND GFDL...BRING ODILE CLOSE TO THE COAST
 OR ONSHORE IN 3-5 DAYS.  IN THE SHORTER TIME FRAME...A SIGNIFICANT
 NORTHWARD DEVIATION IN THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE WOULD PROBABLY
 REQUIRE WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF
 SOUTHERN MEXICO.  INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF SOUTHERN
 MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      09/2100Z 13.3N  95.3W    45 KT
  12HR VT     10/0600Z 13.9N  96.7W    55 KT
  24HR VT     10/1800Z 14.5N  98.5W    60 KT
  36HR VT     11/0600Z 15.4N 100.3W    65 KT
  48HR VT     11/1800Z 16.3N 102.0W    65 KT
  72HR VT     12/1800Z 18.0N 105.0W    65 KT
  96HR VT     13/1800Z 19.5N 106.5W    65 KT
 120HR VT     14/1800Z 21.0N 108.0W    60 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH