196 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 090232
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162008
 800 PM PDT WED OCT 08 2008
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
 THIS EVENING...WITH INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING AN INCREASE
 IN CONVECTIVE BANDING NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  SATELLITE
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THERE WAS A
 30 KT SHIP REPORT NEAR THE COAST OF GUATEMALA.  THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY THUS REMAINS 30 KT.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE
 WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...BUT THERE IS LITTLE OUTFLOW ELSEWHERE.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/10.  THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE
 OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO...WITH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
 AGREEING THAT THE RIDGE SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
 GULF OF MEXICO AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE FORECAST
 PERIOD.  DESPITE THIS AGREEMENT...THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE WELL ON
 THE FORECAST TRACK.  THE NOGAPS...UKMET...AND THE CANADIAN MOVE THE
 SYSTEM VERY LITTLE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH THE UKMET SHOWING THE
 DEPRESSION DISSIPATING.  THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST A WEST-
 NORTHWESTWARD MOTION NEAR AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE COAST OF MEXICO. 
 THE GFDL AND HWRF FORECAST TRACKS PARALLEL TO AND OFFSHORE OF THE
 COAST OF MEXICO...WITH THE HWRF SHOWING A FASTER MOTION THAN THE
 GFDL.  GIVEN THE SPREAD...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A SLOW
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BETWEEN THE MORE SOUTHERLY HWRF AND THE
 MORE NORTHERLY GFS/ECMWF.  THE NEW TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE
 PREVIOUS TRACK AND NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
 UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY
 FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX
 ATTACHED TO THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A 53 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 25 KT OF
 STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 24 HR.  HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
 THE HWRF IS THE ONLY MODEL CALLING FOR THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A
 HURRICANE....AND THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST SPLITS THE
 DIFFERENCE BETWEEN IT AND THE LESS AGGRESSIVE MODELS.  THE FORECAST
 BECOMES VERY UNCERTAIN AFTER 72 HR.  THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP 45
 KT UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLIES OVER THE CYCLONE...WHICH WOULD CAUSE
 SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THE UKMET SHOWS WEAKER
 EASTERLIES...WHILE THE NOGAPS SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING
 WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CAUSING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. 
 GIVEN THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...THE INTENSITY
 FORECAST SHOWS WEAKENING AFTER 96 HR.  HOWEVER...IT WILL NOT SHOW
 AS MUCH WEAKENING AS THE GFDL...WHICH CALLS FOR DISSIPATION. 
  
 THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE DEPRESSION ARE BRINGING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
 RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      09/0300Z 12.2N  91.8W    30 KT
  12HR VT     09/1200Z 12.7N  93.1W    35 KT
  24HR VT     10/0000Z 13.3N  94.5W    45 KT
  36HR VT     10/1200Z 13.9N  95.9W    50 KT
  48HR VT     11/0000Z 14.4N  97.3W    55 KT
  72HR VT     12/0000Z 15.5N 100.0W    60 KT
  96HR VT     13/0000Z 16.5N 102.0W    60 KT
 120HR VT     14/0000Z 17.5N 104.5W    55 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN