861 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 151436
 TCDEP5
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152013
 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013
  
 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE CENTER OF
 OCTAVE IS LOCATED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN COAST OF THE SOUTHERN
 BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE SYSTEM HAS ONLY BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP
 CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER FOR ABOUT 5 HOURS...AND TWO ASCAT
 SCATTEROMETER PASSES THAT CAME IN AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
 INDICATED THAT THE CYCLONE STILL CONTAINED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
 WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER AND ALSO TO THE
 NORTHEAST OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...
 AN INTENSITY OF 30 KT AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS ARE BEING
 MAINTAINED FOR THIS ADVISORY.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/04 KT. OCTAVE HAS MADE AN
 EAST-NORTHEASTWARD JOG ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA
 CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. HOWEVER...MOST OF
 THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT OCTAVE OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD
 GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE
 NEXT 12 HOURS...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DECOUPLING FROM THE
 MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS DURING THAT TIME DUE TO STRONG
 SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR OF AT LEAST 35 KT. THE RESULT IS THAT
 OCTAVE SHOULD QUICKLY DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
 LATER TODAY...AND MEANDER AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE GULF OF
 CALIFORNIA.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  15/1500Z 25.4N 110.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  16/0000Z 26.0N 110.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  16/1200Z 26.7N 109.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART