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 873 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 010834
 TCDEP1
 
 Hurricane Norman Discussion Number  17
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162018
 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 01 2018
 
 Norman continues to weaken due to the effects of moderate
 northeasterly shear of about 20 kt, as analyzed in SHIPS
 diagnostics. The hurricane has taken on a traditional IR shear
 pattern structure, with a tight gradient of brightness temperatures
 observed up-shear of the estimated center position. Satellite
 intensity estimates have continued to drop and no longer support
 keeping Norman at major hurricane strength. The initial intensity
 has been lowered to 95 kt, just above the latest SATCON estimate,
 but this still could be generous.
 
 The shear affecting Norman is expected to continue for at least the
 next 24 h. Some of the dynamical models hint that the shear could
 relax between 24-48 h, which would likely bring an end to Norman's
 weakening trend. While it is not explicitly reflected in the
 intensity forecast, a decrease in shear could even allow the
 hurricane to briefly restrengthen. Recent microwave imagery
 indicates that the mid- to lower-level inner-core and eye of Norman
 are still intact. If this structure can survive the next 24 h of
 shear, reintensification would be more likely. By 72 h, the
 hurricane will reach drier, more stable air and moderate SSTs, and
 these factors will likely cause it to steadily weaken through the
 remainder of the forecast period.
 
 The cyclone appears to have finally turned westward, and the
 initial motion is 265/7 kt.  No significant changes have been made
 to the track forecast. Norman is still expected to move westward
 to west-northwestward for the next several days, steered primarily
 by an extensive deep-layer ridge to the north. The models remain
 in good agreement on the track of Norman throughout the forecast
 period, and the official track forecast is near the middle of the
 guidance envelope and very close to the various consensus aids.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  01/0900Z 16.3N 123.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
  12H  01/1800Z 16.3N 124.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
  24H  02/0600Z 16.6N 126.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
  36H  02/1800Z 17.3N 129.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
  48H  03/0600Z 18.2N 132.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
  72H  04/0600Z 19.9N 139.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
  96H  05/0600Z 21.0N 143.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 120H  06/0600Z 21.5N 147.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Zelinsky
 
 
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