323 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 310836
 TCDEP1
 
 Hurricane Norman Discussion Number  13
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162018
 200 AM PDT Fri Aug 31 2018
 
 Norman appears to have weakened over the past several hours. Cloud
 tops around the eye have warmed, and the eye itself has become less
 distinct. Several recent microwave overpasses show little indication
 that an eyewall replacement cycle is underway, but it is possible
 that our ability to observe such a cycle is limited by the
 resolution of the available instruments. Satellite intensity
 estimates from all agencies have decreased and supported at most an
 intensity of 125 kt at 0600 UTC. Given the continued warming of
 cloud tops near the inner core since that time, the initial
 intensity has been lowered to 120 kt.
 
 Due to the lower initial intensity, the intensity forecast has also
 been lowered slightly, particularly for the first 24 h. Gradual
 weakening is expected through the forecast period, though larger
 short-term fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement
 cycles are possible, if not likely, while Norman remains a
 hurricane. By the end of the forecast period, a faster weakening
 rate is anticipated as Norman is forecast to move over cooler SSTs
 and reach a drier environment. The NHC forecast is near the center
 of the intensity guidance envelope and near the intensity consensus.
 
 The hurricane has continued to move west-southwestward at 8 kt.
 Almost no change has been made to the track forecast, which remains
 close to the various consensus aids. The hurricane should turn
 westward, and then west-northwestward, as it is steered primarily by
 a deep-layer ridge to the north for the next 5 days. With the
 exception of the UKMET global model, which is an outlier to the
 south, the global and regional dynamical models are in good
 agreement on the future path of Norman, and confidence in the track
 forecast is fairly high.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  31/0900Z 16.9N 120.2W  120 KT 140 MPH
  12H  31/1800Z 16.6N 121.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
  24H  01/0600Z 16.3N 123.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
  36H  01/1800Z 16.3N 125.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
  48H  02/0600Z 16.7N 127.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
  72H  03/0600Z 18.4N 133.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
  96H  04/0600Z 19.5N 139.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 120H  05/0600Z 20.5N 143.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Zelinsky