167 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 302037
 TCDEP1
 
 Hurricane Norman Discussion Number  11
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162018
 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 30 2018
 
 Norman is a very impressive hurricane in visible and infrared
 satellite imagery. The hurricane's CDO is very symmetric and has a
 well-defined 20-nmi-wide eye.  The surrounding ring of cold cloud
 tops have warmed slightly, but the various satellite intensity
 estimates are still catching up to the improved satellite
 presentation and range from 127 kt to 135 kt.  Based on a blend of
 these data, the initial intensity is set at 130 kt, and it appears
 that Norman's rapid strengthening phase is easing. There is still a
 potential for some additional increase in intensity within the next
 12 hour or so, however, eyewall replacement probabilities from
 UW/CIMSS indicate a very high likelihood of an eyewall replacement
 beginning within the next 12-24 hours which will probably lead to
 some fluctuations in intensity. Slightly lower sea surface
 temperatures and a subtle increase in northeasterly shear are
 expected to cause a gradual decrease in wind speed over the weekend.
 The NHC intensity forecast shows gradual weakening but it does not
 weaken Norman as quickly as the statistical guidance, and it is in
 best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model.
 
 Recent satellite fixes indicated that Norman is moving slightly
 south of due west.  A strong mid- to upper-level ridge that extends
 west-southwestward from the Baja California peninsula should steer
 Norman west-southwestward during the next 36 hours.  After that
 time, the ridge changes orientation which is expected to cause
 Norman to turn back toward the west or west-northwest by early next
 week.  The track guidance is once again tightly clustered but the
 overall model enveloped has shifted slightly southward.  As a
 result, the NHC forecast has been nudged in that direction to be
 closer to the various consensus aids.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  30/2100Z 17.5N 118.8W  130 KT 150 MPH
  12H  31/0600Z 17.2N 120.0W  135 KT 155 MPH
  24H  31/1800Z 16.8N 121.5W  130 KT 150 MPH
  36H  01/0600Z 16.3N 123.2W  120 KT 140 MPH
  48H  01/1800Z 16.2N 125.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
  72H  02/1800Z 17.1N 129.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
  96H  03/1800Z 18.9N 135.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 120H  04/1800Z 20.2N 140.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown