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 333 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 151501
 TCDEP5
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152006
 800 AM PDT SUN OCT 15 2006
  
 THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN PRODUCING A VERY LARGE AND IMPRESSIVE AREA
 OF DEEP CONVECTION THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER...IT HAS BEEN EXTREMELY
 DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.  RECENT TRMM
 AND AMSR-E OVERPASSES HAVE NOT PROVIDED ANY CONCLUSIVE EVIDENCE TO
 HELP LOCATE THE CENTER.  A QUIKSCAT PASS JUST RECEIVED INDICATES
 THAT IF THE CENTER IS NOT ALREADY ON THE COAST IT IS VERY CLOSE.
  
 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT...AND THE RECENT
 QUIKSCAT PASS DOES NOT INDICATE ANY 35 KT WINDS THAT ARE NOT
 SUSPECT DUE TO RAIN CONTAMINATION.  GIVEN THESE DATA NORMAN WILL
 REMAIN A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE MAIN
 INHIBITOR FOR STRENGTHENING IS NORMAN'S CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND. 
 ON THE FORECAST TRACK NORMAN SHOULD MOVE INLAND IN THE NEXT FEW
 HOURS.  WHILE THE INTENSITY FORECAST DOES NOT INDICATE NORMAN
 REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
 IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. 
 THEREAFTER... NORMAN SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE
 MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO.
  
 THE MAIN STEERING FEATURES REMAIN A MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS
 MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND A
 RIDGE OVER EASTERN MEXICO.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A NORTH
 TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS
 NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE RATHER DIVERGENT TRACK GUIDANCE.
  
 REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT NORMAN STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL
 STORM BEFORE LANDFALL...THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE
 IS HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ASSOCIATED FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER THE
 MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      15/1500Z 19.0N 104.8W    30 KT
  12HR VT     16/0000Z 19.7N 104.6W    30 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     16/1200Z 20.7N 104.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
  36HR VT     17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
   
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB
  
 
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