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 635 
 FOPZ15 KNHC 150854
 PWSEP5
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10      
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152006               
 0900 UTC SUN OCT 15 2006                                            
                                                                     
 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN WAS LOCATED NEAR  
 LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
 WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                              
                                                                     
 CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
    ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
    ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
    ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
 FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
     IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
         AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
    (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
         06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
 X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
 LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
    PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                     
 Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
    PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
    HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                     
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                     
 SAN BLAS       34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
  
 P VALLARTA     34  1   6( 7)   4(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
  
 BARRA NAVIDAD  34 21  12(33)   1(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 BARRA NAVIDAD  50  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
  
 MANZANILLO     34 22  13(35)   2(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)
 MANZANILLO     50  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
  
 L CARDENAS     34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
  
 ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
  
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
  HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                     
  12 187N 1046W 34 42   7(49)   1(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)
  12 187N 1046W 50  4   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
  12 187N 1046W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
  
  24 197N 1044W 34 10  13(23)   2(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
  24 197N 1044W 50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
  24 197N 1044W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
  
  36 205N 1044W 34  1   9(10)   4(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
  36 205N 1044W 50  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
  36 205N 1044W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
  
                - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
 FCST MAX WIND     40     30      20       0       0       0       0
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
  
                                                                     
 $$                                                                  
 FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
                                                                     
                                                                     
 
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