357
FOPZ15 KNHC 101433
PWSEP5
TROPICAL STORM NORMAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006
1500 UTC TUE OCT 10 2006
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORMAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 178N 1175W 34 52 4(56) 1(57) X(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58)
12 178N 1175W 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
12 178N 1175W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
24 187N 1166W 34 4 21(25) 3(28) 2(30) X(30) X(30) X(30)
24 187N 1166W 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
24 187N 1166W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
36 195N 1156W 34 X 7( 7) 9(16) 3(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22)
36 195N 1156W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
36 195N 1156W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
48 200N 1147W 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 5(13) 3(16) 1(17) X(17)
48 200N 1147W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
48 200N 1147W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
72 210N 1130W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11)
72 210N 1130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
72 210N 1130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
96 220N 1115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7)
96 220N 1115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
96 220N 1115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35 35 30 30 25 20 0
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN
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