813 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 092037
 TCDEP5
 TROPICAL STORM NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152006
 200 PM PDT MON OCT 09 2006
  
 RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES FROM BOTH TRMM AND SSMI-S INDICATE THAT THE
 CENTER IS SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  IN ANY
 EVENT...NORMAN HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THIS
 MORNING AND DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EXIST WITH SLIGHT BANDING
 FEATURES.  1800 UTC DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 55 KT FROM
 TAFB...AND 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND AFWA.  HOWEVER...A 1350 UTC
 QUIKSCAT PASS DID NOT REVEAL ANY VECTORS OVER 35 KT AND AS A
 RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 40 KT.  NORMAN IS
 FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS...BUT IN A GRADUALLY INCREASING
 WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR THE DURATION OF THE
 FORECAST.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION
 IN THE NEAR-TERM...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN THREE
 OR SO DAYS AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO EVENTUALLY SUCCUMB
 TO THE INCREASING SHEAR.  THIS REASONING FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE
 SHIPS GUIDANCE.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/6.  NORMAN CONTINUES TO MOVE AROUND THE
 WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
 MEXICO.  IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...NORMAN IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF
 RIDGE AND BECOME EMBEDDED IN STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
 AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
 CALIFORNIA.  THERE IS A DICHOTOMY IN THE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE.  THE
 GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE FOLLOW THE ABOVE REASONING AND TAKE
 NORMAN TO THE NORTH AND THEN TO THE NORTHEAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...
 THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND GFS MODELS ALL TURN THE CYCLONE TO THE
 NORTHEAST...EAST...AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH.  THE LATTER SCENARIO
 APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
 BLEND OF THE GFDL...FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...AND IS TO THE LEFT OF THE
 PREVIOUS FORECAST. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      09/2100Z 16.2N 117.9W    40 KT
  12HR VT     10/0600Z 16.9N 118.1W    45 KT
  24HR VT     10/1800Z 17.7N 118.0W    45 KT
  36HR VT     11/0600Z 18.6N 117.8W    40 KT
  48HR VT     11/1800Z 19.5N 117.2W    35 KT
  72HR VT     12/1800Z 21.0N 115.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     13/1800Z 22.5N 113.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     14/1800Z 24.0N 111.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN