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 708 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 091443
 TCDEP5
 TROPICAL STORM NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152006
 800 AM PDT MON OCT 09 2006
  
 DEEP CONVECTION WITH THE CYCLONE HAS TAKEN THE FORM OF A NICELY
 CURVED BAND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.  NOT MUCH OF A CONSENSUS
 EXISTS AMONG THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES...WHICH AT 12Z WERE
 55...45...AND 30 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...RESPECTIVELY.  THE
 UW/CIMSS ADT IS GIVING A CI ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 35 KT...BUT RECENT
 RAW NUMBERS ARE HIGHER.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS A BLEND
 OF THESE ESTIMATES.  WE WILL SEE WHETHER THE BANDED STRUCTURE
 PERSISTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND A QUIKSCAT PASS DUE SHORTLY
 SHOULD SHED MORE LIGHT ON HOW STRONG THE CYCLONE IS.  THERE IS AN
 OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO
 WHILE NORMAN IS STILL OVER WARM WATER AND BEFORE THE CYCLONE
 ENCOUNTERS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...ALTHOUGH NEITHER THE GFDL NOR THE
 SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES MUCH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.  GIVEN THE
 APPARENT STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING...THE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY
 FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND WELL ABOVE THE
 GFDL.  REGARDLESS OF WHAT NORMAN DOES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...
 ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AFTER THAT SHOULD BE QUITE HOSTILE AND
 INDUCE WEAKENING.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/6.  NORMAN IS MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN
 EDGE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO.  THE
 CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT
 ROUNDS THE RIDGE AND BECOMES EMBEDDED IN A SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING
 CURRENT TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
 UNITED STATES.  AFTER THAT...CONSIDERABLE SPREAD EXISTS AMONG THE
 GUIDANCE MODELS...WITH THE NOGAPS AND UKMET TURNING NORMAN SLOWLY
 SOUTHEASTWARD...WHILE THE GFDL AND BAM MODELS TAKE NORMAN OFF
 SMARTLY TO THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL
 SOUTHWESTERLIES.  GIVEN THE SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS THAT LIE AHEAD
 OF NORMAN...I BELIEVE THE LATTER SCENARIO IS UNLIKELY.  THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED LATE IN
 THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF
 GUIDANCE.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      09/1500Z 15.8N 117.6W    40 KT
  12HR VT     10/0000Z 16.8N 117.7W    45 KT
  24HR VT     10/1200Z 18.2N 117.5W    45 KT
  36HR VT     11/0000Z 19.0N 117.0W    40 KT
  48HR VT     11/1200Z 19.5N 116.5W    35 KT
  72HR VT     12/1200Z 20.5N 115.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     13/1200Z 21.5N 113.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     14/1200Z 22.5N 112.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN
  
 
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