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 379 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 270825
 TCDEP4
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 AM PDT TUE SEP 27 2005
  
 A QUIKSCAT PASS NEAR 02Z HAD ONE LONELY RAIN-FLAGGED 30 KT
 VECTOR...AND SINCE THAT TIME DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISAPPEARED.
 BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KT.
 WITH NORMA HAVING CROSSED THE 26C SST ISOTHERM...LITTLE OR NO
 ADDITIONAL DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED.  NORMA NO LONGER HAS THE
 CONVECTION REQUIRED OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND SO THIS WILL BE THE
 LAST ADVISORY.  THE REMNANT LOW CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
 SPIN DOWN.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/9. WHILE THE CURRENT STEERING RESULTS FROM
 THE FLOW AROUND A LARGE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER
 TEXAS...NORMA WILL PROBABLY TURN WESTWARD LATER TODAY AS THIS RIDGE
 BUILDS TO ITS NORTH. IN ADDITION...NOW THAT THE CONVECTION IS
 DISSIPATING...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW DOMINATED BY THE NORTHEASTERLIES
 WILL TAKE OVER AND SHOULD FORCE THE REMNANT LOW SOUTHWESTWARD. THE
 GFS COMPLETELY DISSIPATES THE CIRCULATION IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.
 
 FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW OF NORMA PLEASE SEE
 HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER
 AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.
 
  
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      27/0900Z 21.9N 116.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  12HR VT     27/1800Z 22.4N 117.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  24HR VT     28/0600Z 22.4N 118.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  36HR VT     28/1800Z 21.8N 119.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     29/0600Z 21.3N 120.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     30/0600Z 20.5N 121.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
  
 $$
 
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