379
WTPZ44 KNHC 270825
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE SEP 27 2005
A QUIKSCAT PASS NEAR 02Z HAD ONE LONELY RAIN-FLAGGED 30 KT
VECTOR...AND SINCE THAT TIME DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISAPPEARED.
BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KT.
WITH NORMA HAVING CROSSED THE 26C SST ISOTHERM...LITTLE OR NO
ADDITIONAL DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. NORMA NO LONGER HAS THE
CONVECTION REQUIRED OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND SO THIS WILL BE THE
LAST ADVISORY. THE REMNANT LOW CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SPIN DOWN.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/9. WHILE THE CURRENT STEERING RESULTS FROM
THE FLOW AROUND A LARGE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER
TEXAS...NORMA WILL PROBABLY TURN WESTWARD LATER TODAY AS THIS RIDGE
BUILDS TO ITS NORTH. IN ADDITION...NOW THAT THE CONVECTION IS
DISSIPATING...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW DOMINATED BY THE NORTHEASTERLIES
WILL TAKE OVER AND SHOULD FORCE THE REMNANT LOW SOUTHWESTWARD. THE
GFS COMPLETELY DISSIPATES THE CIRCULATION IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW OF NORMA PLEASE SEE
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/0900Z 21.9N 116.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
12HR VT 27/1800Z 22.4N 117.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 28/0600Z 22.4N 118.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 28/1800Z 21.8N 119.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 29/0600Z 21.3N 120.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 30/0600Z 20.5N 121.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
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