906
WTPZ44 KNHC 270241
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON SEP 26 2005
NORMA HAD CONTINUED TO PRODUCE SOME DEEP CONVECTION JUST WEST OF THE
LOW LEVEL CENTER FOR MOST OF THE DAY... UNTIL VERY RECENTLY WHEN
THE BURST THAT BEGAN AT ABOUT 21Z WENT ON A RAPID DECLINE. THE
CYCLONE IS ABOUT TO CROSS THE 26C SST ISOTHERM... SO THIS WANING
CONVECTION MIGHT BE THE LAST GASP FOR NORMA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 30 KT REMAINS ROUGHLY A BLEND OF THE 00Z DVORAK T AND CI
NUMBERS... BUT IT IS NOT LIKELY TO STAY THIS STRONG FOR MUCH
LONGER. PERSISTENT EASTERLY SHEAR... COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES... AND AN INCREASINGLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING... AND IN 12 TO 24 HOURS NORMA WILL
PROBABLY LOSE TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS.
THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD BUT AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
PACE... WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 315/7. WHILE THE
CURRENT STEERING RESULTS FROM THE FLOW AROUND A LARGE MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER TEXAS... NORMA WILL PROBABLY TURN
WESTWARD TOMORROW AS THIS RIDGE BUILDS TO ITS NORTH. ONCE THE
CONVECTION COMPLETELY DIES OFF... THE LOW LEVEL FLOW DOMINATED BY
THE NORTHEASTERLY TRADES WILL TAKE OVER AND SHOULD FORCE THE
REMNANT LOW SOUTHWESTWARD. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... JUST A LITTLE SLOWER LATE IN
THE PERIOD.
FORECASTER KNABB
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/0300Z 21.0N 115.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 27/1200Z 21.5N 116.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 28/0000Z 21.7N 117.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 28/1200Z 21.5N 118.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 29/0000Z 21.2N 119.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 30/0000Z 20.5N 120.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 01/0000Z 20.0N 122.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 02/0000Z 20.0N 123.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
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