Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 906 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 270241
 TCDEP4
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 PM PDT MON SEP 26 2005
  
 NORMA HAD CONTINUED TO PRODUCE SOME DEEP CONVECTION JUST WEST OF THE
 LOW LEVEL CENTER FOR MOST OF THE DAY... UNTIL VERY RECENTLY WHEN
 THE BURST THAT BEGAN AT ABOUT 21Z WENT ON A RAPID DECLINE.  THE
 CYCLONE IS ABOUT TO CROSS THE 26C SST ISOTHERM... SO THIS WANING
 CONVECTION MIGHT BE THE LAST GASP FOR NORMA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY
 OF 30 KT REMAINS ROUGHLY A BLEND OF THE 00Z DVORAK T AND CI
 NUMBERS... BUT IT IS NOT LIKELY TO STAY THIS STRONG FOR MUCH
 LONGER.  PERSISTENT EASTERLY SHEAR... COOLER SEA SURFACE
 TEMPERATURES... AND AN INCREASINGLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
 INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING... AND IN 12 TO 24 HOURS NORMA WILL
 PROBABLY LOSE TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS.
  
 THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD BUT AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
 PACE... WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 315/7.  WHILE THE
 CURRENT STEERING RESULTS FROM THE FLOW AROUND A LARGE MID-LEVEL
 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER TEXAS... NORMA WILL PROBABLY TURN
 WESTWARD TOMORROW AS THIS RIDGE BUILDS TO ITS NORTH.  ONCE THE
 CONVECTION COMPLETELY DIES OFF... THE LOW LEVEL FLOW DOMINATED BY
 THE NORTHEASTERLY TRADES WILL TAKE OVER AND SHOULD FORCE THE
 REMNANT LOW SOUTHWESTWARD.  THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY
 SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... JUST A LITTLE SLOWER LATE IN
 THE PERIOD.
  
  
 FORECASTER KNABB
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      27/0300Z 21.0N 115.4W    30 KT
  12HR VT     27/1200Z 21.5N 116.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  24HR VT     28/0000Z 21.7N 117.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  36HR VT     28/1200Z 21.5N 118.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     29/0000Z 21.2N 119.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     30/0000Z 20.5N 120.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     01/0000Z 20.0N 122.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     02/0000Z 20.0N 123.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
  
 $$
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for NORMA

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman