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 660 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 262037
 TCDEP4
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 PM PDT MON SEP 26 2005
 
 SOME CELLS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE RE-DEVELOPED NEAR AND SOUTH OF
 THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...BUT THERE IS NO CONVECTIVE BANDING AND
 OVERALL THE SYSTEM IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE-LOOKING.  USING THE MEAN
 OF DVORAK T- AND C.I.- NUMBERS...WHICH IS ROUTINELY DONE AT THE NHC
 FOR WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...
 GIVES A CURRENT WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF 30 KT.  NORMA IS DOWNGRADED
 TO A DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME...BUT SINCE IT IS MOVING OVER
 MARGINALLY WARM WATER TEMPERATURES...SOME MORE FLAREUPS OF DEEP
 CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SYSTEM DEGENERATES INTO A
 REMNANT LOW.  PERSISTENT EASTERLY SHEAR AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE
 SHOULD ALSO DISCOURAGE RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM.  THE
 OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS RATHER SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS
 GUIDANCE.  NORMA COULD DISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED BELOW.
 
 INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY FASTER...315/8.  TRACK GUIDANCE AND
 SYNOPTIC REASONING FOR THE TRACK FORECAST HAVE NOT CHANGED
 SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PAST FEW ADVISORIES.  NORMA SHOULD CONTINUE
 ITS NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWING THE FLOW
 ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE...AND THEN
 THE WEAKENING REMNANT CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO TURN WESTWARD AS ITS
 STEERING BECOMES MOST INFLUENCED BY FLOW IN THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER. 
 THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THAT FROM THE
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      26/2100Z 20.6N 115.1W    30 KT
  12HR VT     27/0600Z 21.2N 115.7W    30 KT
  24HR VT     27/1800Z 21.6N 116.6W    30 KT
  36HR VT     28/0600Z 21.5N 117.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  48HR VT     28/1800Z 21.3N 118.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     29/1800Z 20.5N 120.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     30/1800Z 20.0N 122.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     01/1800Z 20.0N 124.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 
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