Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 783 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 261422
 TCDEP4
 TROPICAL STORM NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 AM PDT MON SEP 26 2005
  
 DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
 HOURS...AND IS NOW OCCURRING IN ONLY A FEW PATCHES NEAR THE CENTER
 AND OVER PARTS THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION.  THIS
 DECREASE IS LIKELY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF COOLER SEA SURFACE
 TEMPERATURES AND MORE STABLE LAPSE RATES.  EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES
 TO BE AN INHIBITING INFLUENCE AS WELL.  NORMA APPEARS TO BE
 WEAKENING MORE RAPIDLY THAN EARLIER FORECAST...BUT IT REMAINS TO BE
 SEEN WHETHER THE DEEP CONVECTION WILL MAKE A SUBSTANTIAL COMEBACK. 
 IF THIS DOES NOT OCCUR...THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE EVEN SOONER
 THAN SHOWN IN THE FORECAST.  GIVEN THE CURRENT DOWNWARD TREND...THE
 OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE BELOW THE LATEST SHIPS AND
 GFDL GUIDANCE. 
 
 INITIAL MOTION...310/7...IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS
 ADVISORY...AS IS THE TRACK FORECAST.  A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH
 PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR THE WESTERN TEXAS-MEXICO BORDER
 CONTINUES TO STEER NORMA NORTHWESTWARD.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
 SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
 DAYS AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS WESTWARD AND TO THE NORTH OF
 NORMA.  IN 3-5 DAYS...THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE SHOULD BE THE
 EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TRADE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL HIGH
 CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST OF NORMA'S REMNANT LOW.
  
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      26/1500Z 19.6N 114.2W    35 KT
  12HR VT     27/0000Z 20.2N 115.0W    35 KT
  24HR VT     27/1200Z 21.0N 116.1W    30 KT
  36HR VT     28/0000Z 21.2N 117.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  48HR VT     28/1200Z 21.0N 118.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     29/1200Z 20.5N 120.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     30/1200Z 20.0N 122.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     01/1200Z 20.0N 124.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for NORMA

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman