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 154 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 260903
 TCDEP4
 TROPICAL STORM NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 AM PDT MON SEP 26 2005
  
 AN SSMI OVERPASS NEAR 04Z SUGGESTS THE CENTER MAY BE A LITTLE NORTH
 OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND A SMALL ADJUSTMENT TO THE RIGHT HAS
 BEEN MADE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/7. THE CURRENT STEERING IS
 BEING PROVIDED BY FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
 MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
 REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO AND THEN BUILD
 WESTWARD. BY THAT TIME...NORMA WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS
 AND BE INCREASINGLY STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND LOW
 PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...LARGELY
 BECAUSE OF THE ADJUSTMENT IN THE INITIAL POSITION...AND IS NEAR THE
 DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE PAST FEW IR IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE
 FORWARD SPEED MAY BE INCREASING...BUT I WOULD RATHER WAIT FOR
 CONFIRMATION BY SUBSEQUENT MICROWAVE DATA BEFORE MAKING SUCH AN
 ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST TRACK.
 
 THE CENTER REMAINS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...
 WHICH HAS DIMINISHED SHARPLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  DVORAK
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z RANGED FROM 35 TO 45 KT.  A QUIKSCAT
 PASS AT 01Z JUST MISSED THE CENTER...BUT THERE WERE SOME 40 KT
 VECTORS DOWNWIND OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND SO THE INTENSITY WILL
 BE HELD AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE PASS ALSO SUGGESTED THAT
 THE WIND RADII NEEDED TO BE EXPANDED.  MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
 NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR STILL APPEARS TO BE AFFECTING THE ORGANIZATION
 OF NORMA...AND WITHIN ANOTHER 24 HOURS COOLER WATERS BECOME AN
 ADDITIONAL DRAG ON THE CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
 THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.  IF NORMA IS INDEED MOVING MORE TO THE
 RIGHT OR FASTER THAN PRESUMED HERE THEN DEGENERATION TO A REMNANT
 LOW COULD OCCUR IN AS LITTLE AS 24 HOURS.
 
  
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      26/0900Z 19.4N 113.5W    40 KT
  12HR VT     26/1800Z 20.3N 114.3W    40 KT
  24HR VT     27/0600Z 21.1N 115.3W    35 KT
  36HR VT     27/1800Z 21.5N 116.3W    30 KT
  48HR VT     28/0600Z 21.5N 117.4W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  72HR VT     29/0600Z 21.0N 119.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     30/0600Z 20.5N 121.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     01/0600Z 20.0N 123.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
  
 $$
 
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