268
WTPZ44 KNHC 251438
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN SEP 25 2005
FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW A SHEARED SYSTEM WITH THE CENTER
ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF
POORLY-ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. THIS SHEAR IS BEING IMPARTED BY
A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF NORMA...AND THE GLOBAL
MODELS PREDICT A CONTINUATION OF THIS REGIME FOR A FEW MORE DAYS.
THEREFORE NO STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SOON. IN FACT...GIVEN THE CURRENTLY
DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE OF THE STORM...NORMA MAY WEAKEN FASTER THAN
SHOWN BELOW.
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 320/7. STEERING IS BEING PROVIDED
BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL HIGH
CENTERED OVER TEXAS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE PREDICTS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING WESTWARD FROM THIS
HIGH...AS A TROUGH NEAR CALIFORNIA LIFTS OUT AND WEAKENS. THIS
PATTERN WOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANT...TO TURN
MORE WESTWARD IN 3-5 DAYS...AS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/1500Z 18.0N 111.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 26/0000Z 18.6N 112.5W 45 KT
24HR VT 26/1200Z 19.6N 113.4W 45 KT
36HR VT 27/0000Z 20.5N 114.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 27/1200Z 21.3N 115.5W 35 KT
72HR VT 28/1200Z 21.5N 117.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 29/1200Z 21.5N 120.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 30/1200Z 21.0N 123.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
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