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 268 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 251438
 TCDEP4
 TROPICAL STORM NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 AM PDT SUN SEP 25 2005
  
 FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW A SHEARED SYSTEM WITH THE CENTER
 ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF
 POORLY-ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION.  THIS SHEAR IS BEING IMPARTED BY
 A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF NORMA...AND THE GLOBAL
 MODELS PREDICT A CONTINUATION OF THIS REGIME FOR A FEW MORE DAYS. 
 THEREFORE NO STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING
 TREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SOON.  IN FACT...GIVEN THE CURRENTLY
 DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE OF THE STORM...NORMA MAY WEAKEN FASTER THAN
 SHOWN BELOW.
 
 INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 320/7.  STEERING IS BEING PROVIDED
 BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL HIGH
 CENTERED OVER TEXAS.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...DYNAMICAL
 GUIDANCE PREDICTS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING WESTWARD FROM THIS
 HIGH...AS A TROUGH NEAR CALIFORNIA LIFTS OUT AND WEAKENS.  THIS
 PATTERN WOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANT...TO TURN
 MORE WESTWARD IN 3-5 DAYS...AS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK
 FORECAST.
  
 FORECASTER PASCH
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      25/1500Z 18.0N 111.6W    45 KT
  12HR VT     26/0000Z 18.6N 112.5W    45 KT
  24HR VT     26/1200Z 19.6N 113.4W    45 KT
  36HR VT     27/0000Z 20.5N 114.5W    40 KT
  48HR VT     27/1200Z 21.3N 115.5W    35 KT
  72HR VT     28/1200Z 21.5N 117.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  96HR VT     29/1200Z 21.5N 120.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     30/1200Z 21.0N 123.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
  
 $$
 
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