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 218 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 250844
 TCDEP4
 TROPICAL STORM NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 AM PDT SUN SEP 25 2005
  
 SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY AND A SERIES OF MICROWAVE SATELLITE
 OVERPASSES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF NORMA IS EXPOSED TO THE
 NORTHEAST OF A STRONG CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB...45 KT FROM AFWA...AND 35 KT FROM
 SAB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 45 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF
 THESE ESTIMATES AND THE EXPOSED CENTER.  THIS INTENSITY IS IN GOOD
 AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 325/5.  WATER VAPOR
 IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM
 MEXICO ALONG 24N 120W...WITH A DIGGING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
 EXTENDING FROM CALIFORNIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 27N130W.  THIS
 COMBINATION SHOULD STEER NORMA GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD IN THE
 SHORT TERM.  AFTER 48 HR OF SO...THE TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN...
 ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD AND TURN NORMA WESTWARD OR
 WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL SHOW THIS
 SCENARIO...AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST
 IS SIMILAR TO...BUT NORTH OF AND A LITTLE FASTER THAN...THE
 PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED MAINLY ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. 
 IT IS MORE OR LESS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE.
 
 NORMAL IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF 20-25 KT EASTERLY SHEAR ACCORDING TO
 ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN.  LARGE-SCALE
 MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO CONTINUE FOR 48-72 HR...WHICH SHOULD
 PREVENT INTENSIFICATION AND POSSIBLY CAUSE FURTHER WEAKENING.  THE
 SHEAR WILL LIKELY DECREASE AFTER 72 HR...BUT BY THAT TIME NORMA
 SHOULD HAVE MOVED NORTH OF THE 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
 ISOTHERM.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SLOW WEAKENING FOR
 THE FIRST 48 HR...FOLLOWED BY A FASTER WEAKENING OVER THE COOLER
 WATERS.  THIS FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE WEAKER SHIPS AND THE
 STRONGER GFDL.
 
 FORECASTER BEVEN
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      25/0900Z 17.4N 111.5W    45 KT
  12HR VT     25/1800Z 18.0N 111.9W    45 KT
  24HR VT     26/0600Z 18.9N 112.6W    45 KT
  36HR VT     26/1800Z 19.9N 113.6W    40 KT
  48HR VT     27/0600Z 20.7N 114.8W    40 KT
  72HR VT     28/0600Z 21.0N 116.5W    30 KT
  96HR VT     29/0600Z 20.5N 118.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 120HR VT     30/0600Z 20.0N 121.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
  
 $$
 
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