394
WTPZ44 KNHC 250304
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT SEP 24 2005
EASTERLY SHEAR HAS CAUSED A DECREASE IN ORGANIZATION OF THE TROPICAL
STORM THIS EVENING... WITH THE LOW LEVEL CENTER BECOMING EXPOSED TO
THE EAST OF THE GENERALLY WEAKENING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK
T NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE SHIPS MODEL
FORECASTS CONTINUED EASTERLY SHEAR AT ABOUT THE SAME MAGNITUDE AS
IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE SYSTEM... THEREFORE LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS... FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE STORM BEGINS MOVING
OVER COOLER WATERS AND UNDER CONTINUED MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR.
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME ALMOST STATIONARY BUT SEEMS TO BE
EDGING TOWARD THE NORTH AT ABOUT TWO KNOTS. THE CONVECTION TO THE
WEST SHOULD SOON START DRAGGING THE LOW LEVEL CENTER ALONG...AND
THE WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH SHOULD INDUCE NORMA ALONG A
GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST
AND EVENTUALLY WEST-SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST AS NORMA WEAKENS AND IS
STEERED MORE BY THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW OF A RIDGE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TO ITS NORTHWEST.
FORECASTER KNABB
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/0300Z 16.8N 110.8W 50 KT
12HR VT 25/1200Z 17.4N 111.2W 50 KT
24HR VT 26/0000Z 18.3N 112.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 26/1200Z 19.2N 113.1W 45 KT
48HR VT 27/0000Z 20.2N 114.4W 45 KT
72HR VT 28/0000Z 20.5N 116.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 29/0000Z 20.0N 118.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 30/0000Z 19.5N 120.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
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