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 394 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 250304
 TCDEP4
 TROPICAL STORM NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 PM PDT SAT SEP 24 2005
  
 EASTERLY SHEAR HAS CAUSED A DECREASE IN ORGANIZATION OF THE TROPICAL
 STORM THIS EVENING... WITH THE LOW LEVEL CENTER BECOMING EXPOSED TO
 THE EAST OF THE GENERALLY WEAKENING CONVECTION.  THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK
 T NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES.  THE SHIPS MODEL
 FORECASTS CONTINUED EASTERLY SHEAR AT ABOUT THE SAME MAGNITUDE AS
 IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE SYSTEM... THEREFORE LITTLE CHANGE IN
 STRENGTH IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24
 HOURS... FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE STORM BEGINS MOVING
 OVER COOLER WATERS AND UNDER CONTINUED MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR.
 
 THE LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME ALMOST STATIONARY BUT SEEMS TO BE
 EDGING TOWARD THE NORTH AT ABOUT TWO KNOTS.  THE CONVECTION TO THE
 WEST SHOULD SOON START DRAGGING THE LOW LEVEL CENTER ALONG...AND
 THE WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH SHOULD INDUCE NORMA ALONG A
 GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION.  A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST
 AND EVENTUALLY WEST-SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST AS NORMA WEAKENS AND IS
 STEERED MORE BY THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW OF A RIDGE EXPECTED TO
 DEVELOP TO ITS NORTHWEST.
  
 FORECASTER KNABB
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      25/0300Z 16.8N 110.8W    50 KT
  12HR VT     25/1200Z 17.4N 111.2W    50 KT
  24HR VT     26/0000Z 18.3N 112.0W    50 KT
  36HR VT     26/1200Z 19.2N 113.1W    45 KT
  48HR VT     27/0000Z 20.2N 114.4W    45 KT
  72HR VT     28/0000Z 20.5N 116.0W    35 KT
  96HR VT     29/0000Z 20.0N 118.0W    30 KT
 120HR VT     30/0000Z 19.5N 120.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
  
 $$
 
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