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 232 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 240255
 TCDEP4
 TROPICAL STORM NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 PM PDT FRI SEP 23 2005
  
 THE CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...AS
 NORMA CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER EASTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
 ARE UNCHANGED AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT. OVER THE
 PAST HOUR OR TWO THERE HAS BEEN AN EXPANSION OF THE DEEP
 CONVECTION.  THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO
 SEPARATE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION...BUT
 STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.  THE SHIPS
 GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHILE
 THE GFDL GUIDANCE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
 BLEND OF THESE TWO GUIDANCE MODELS.  BY 96 HOURS NORMA IS EXPECTED
 TO BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS.
 
 NORMA HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT THE
 TRACK...330/3...IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS MOTION.  NORMA IS
 SOUTH OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH...BUT MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
 GUIDANCE MOVES NORMA SLOWLY NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKER
 LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  WITH THE EASTERLY SHEAR...THE MOTION OF NORMA WILL
 BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON HOW CONNECTED THE CIRCULATION CENTER
 REMAINS WITH THE CONVECTION...WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM FOLLOWING THE
 MID-LEVEL STEERING TO THE NORTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
 ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND SLOWER...TO BE IN BETTER
 AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  LATE IN THE FORECAST
 PERIOD RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD FROM MEXICO AND TURN
 NORMA MORE TO THE WEST.
  
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      24/0300Z 15.6N 110.1W    45 KT
  12HR VT     24/1200Z 16.0N 110.3W    45 KT
  24HR VT     25/0000Z 16.5N 110.7W    50 KT
  36HR VT     25/1200Z 17.2N 111.3W    55 KT
  48HR VT     26/0000Z 17.7N 112.0W    55 KT
  72HR VT     27/0000Z 19.0N 113.5W    55 KT
  96HR VT     28/0000Z 19.5N 115.0W    50 KT
 120HR VT     29/0000Z 20.0N 117.0W    40 KT
  
  
 $$
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