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 804 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 231431
 TCDEP4
 TROPICAL STORM NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 AM PDT FRI SEP 23 2005
  
 NORMA'S CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN
 AREA OF CONVECTION.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM AFWA...SAB...
 AND TAFB RANGE FROM 30 TO 45 KT.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT
 40 KT.  THERE IS MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE
 AREA...AND ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS FORECAST...AN EASTERLY
 SHEARING REGIME WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 
 HOWEVER...THIS SHEAR MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT SOME SLOW
 STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE STORM REACHES COOLER WATERS.  THE OFFICIAL
 WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
 
 INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 320/4.  NORMA LIES TO THE SOUTH OF A
 WEAKENING MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE.  THERE IS DIVERSITY IN THE
 DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE WITH THE GFDL SHOWING A GENERALLY NORTHWARD
 TRACK...THE GFS FORECASTING A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...AND THE
 NOGAPS PREDICTING LITTLE MOVEMENT FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS FOLLOWED BY
 A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK.  AS A COMPROMISE OF THIS GUIDANCE...THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE
 PERIOD.  THIS IS SOMEWHAT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS NHC
 FORECAST.
 
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      23/1500Z 15.6N 109.3W    40 KT
  12HR VT     24/0000Z 16.1N 109.7W    45 KT
  24HR VT     24/1200Z 16.9N 110.3W    50 KT
  36HR VT     25/0000Z 17.7N 111.0W    55 KT
  48HR VT     25/1200Z 18.5N 111.7W    55 KT
  72HR VT     26/1200Z 20.0N 113.0W    55 KT
  96HR VT     27/1200Z 21.5N 114.5W    45 KT
 120HR VT     28/1200Z 22.5N 116.5W    35 KT
  
  
 $$
 
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