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 474 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 230503
 TCDEP4
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 10 PM PDT THU SEP 22 2005
  
 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE VIGOROUS
 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED ABOUT 350 NMI SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
 MEXICO HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E. A
 LARGE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND TO THE WEST
 OF THE TIGHT-LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...AND DATA T-NUMBERS
 USING A SHEAR PATTERN ARE AT LEAST T2.5/35 KT. IN ADDITION... A
 23/0046Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS CONTAINED SEVERAL 30-KT NON-RAINFLAGGED
 WIND VECTORS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. WHILE THE QUIKSCAT WIND
 DATA WAS NEAR THE SWATH EDGE...THERE APPEARS TO BE GOOD CONTINUITY
 WITH THE PROGRESSIVELY DECREASING WIND VECTORS TO THE EAST. WHILE
 IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WINDS MAY BE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN THE
 DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER... THE INITIAL INTENSITY
 IS BEING STARTED AT 30 KT SINCE THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS NOT
 PERSISTED NEAR THE CENTER FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/07. A SMALL LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
 WAS NOTED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY ROTATING WESTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON
 TO THE NORTH OF THE MORE DOMINANT CIRCULATION. THIS CIRCULATION HAS
 SINCE WRAPPED AROUND THE WEST SIDE AND LIKELY HAS BEEN STRETCHED 
 OUT INTO THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
 THEREFORE...THE INITIAL POSITION IS A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH
 OF PREVIOUS SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES. THERE IS A LARGE BUT WEAK
 MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE DEPRESSION...
 WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
 THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE
 MEDIUM BAM MODEL AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MOTION INDICATED IN THE
 GLOBAL MODELS.
 
 THERE IS SOME EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR OF ABOUT 10-15
 KT CURRENTLY AFFECTING TD-14E. HOWEVER... THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
 RELAX TO LESS THAN 10 KT DURING THE 12-36 HOUR PERIOD... BEFORE
 INCREASING QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY AGAIN AFTER THAT. WITH THE
 DECREASING SHEAR AND DEPRESSION MOVING OVER 28C-28.5C SSTS FOR THE
 NEXT 36 HOURS...STEADY INTENSIFICATION AT A TYPICAL 1 T-NUMBER PER
 24 HOURS RATE IS FORECAST UNTIL THE INCREASING SHEAR KICKS BACK
 IN... AFTER WHICH SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST. HOWEVER...
 IF THE SHEAR ABATES THROUGH THE 48 HOUR PERIOD... THEN THE CYCLONE
 COULD POSSIBLY STRENGTHEN TO NEAR HURRICANE STATUS.
  
 FORECASTER STEWART
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      23/0500Z 15.1N 108.9W    30 KT
  12HR VT     23/1200Z 15.5N 109.7W    35 KT
  24HR VT     24/0000Z 16.1N 111.0W    45 KT
  36HR VT     24/1200Z 16.8N 112.3W    55 KT
  48HR VT     25/0000Z 17.4N 113.5W    50 KT
  72HR VT     26/0000Z 18.5N 115.8W    45 KT
  96HR VT     27/0000Z 20.0N 118.5W    40 KT
 120HR VT     28/0000Z 21.0N 121.0W    35 KT
  
 $$
 
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