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 537 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 061434
 TCDEP4
 
 HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014
 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 06 2014
 
 First visible images reveal a pinhole eye surrounded by very deep
 convection. Nevertheless, after a rapid intensification observed on
 satellite last night, objective and subjective Dvorak T-numbers are
 decreasing, and only support an initial intensity of 100 kt. A
 portion of the circulation is already reaching cooler waters and
 moving into a more stable environment. This should result in a
 gradual weakening during the next 24 hours, with a faster rate of
 weakening thereafter. Norbert is expected to become a remnant low
 over the cold waters just west of the northern Baja California
 peninsula in 3 days or so.
 
 The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the northwest or
 310 degrees at 7 knots. Norbert is forecast to be steered by the
 flow around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge
 centered over the southwestern United States. In a 48 hours, the
 cyclone will reach the base of the mid-latitude westerlies and
 will begin to move northward and then northeastward. By then,
 Norbert is forecast to be a shallow cyclone, moving little
 in a weak low-level flow. There is high confidence in the short-
 term track forecast since there is a good guidance agreement. Beyond
 3 days, global models either forecast Norbert to dissipate in situ
 near the west coast of the northern Baja California peninsula or
 continue to move the system eastward as a weak low or a trough. The
 NHC prefers the former global model solution.
 
 Moisture from the remnants of Dolly and the Pacific ITCZ is being
 advected northward by the outer circulation of Norbert across
 northern Mexico and into the southwestern United States. This could
 result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these
 areas during the next few days. Please see information from your
 local weather office for more details.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  06/1500Z 25.0N 114.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
  12H  07/0000Z 25.6N 115.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
  24H  07/1200Z 26.5N 116.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
  36H  08/0000Z 27.3N 117.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  08/1200Z 28.2N 117.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  09/1200Z 29.5N 117.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  10/1200Z 30.0N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  11/1200Z 30.0N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila
 
 
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