708 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 040259
 TCDEP4
 
 HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014
 800 PM PDT WED SEP 03 2014
 
 Norbert continues to intensify this evening.  Evening visible
 satellite images showed a symmetric central dense overcast feature
 with curved convective bands wrapping around the center. The latest
 Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW/CIMMS ADT were
 between 65 and 77 kt, and the initial wind speed has been increased
 to 70 kt for this advisory.  Norbert is the ninth hurricane to form
 in the eastern Pacific basin this season.
 
 The outflow has become well established, except over the
 northeastern portion of the cyclone where there is a hint of light
 to moderate northeasterly shear. However, the shear is not expected
 to be strong enough to inhibit strengthening during the next day or
 so while Norbert remains over warm water. The NHC forecast is close
 to the SHIPS model through 36 h and is similar to the previous
 advisory. After that time, Norbert will be approaching cooler waters
 and a drier and more stable airmass, which should cause weakening to
 commence. A faster rate of weakening is forecast in 48 to 72 hours
 when the cyclone moves over SSTs below 26C.
 
 The hurricane appears to have turned northwestward with an initial
 motion of 305/7 kt.  Norbert should continue on a general
 northwestward motion during the next several days around the
 southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge that extends westward
 across northern Mexico.  The model guidance is in good agreement on
 the general heading of the cyclone, although there are some
 differences in the forward speed of Norbert later in the period.
 Much of the guidance now indicates a faster forward speed late in
 the period, with the GFS showing a deeper cyclone moving even faster
 and farther north than the ECMWF, UKMET, and HWRF.  The updated NHC
 track forecast is a little faster than the previous advisory to be
 in better agreement with the multi-model consensus, but is not
 nearly as fast as the GFS.
 
 Moisture indirectly related to Norbert being pulled northward
 around the eastern side of cyclone's large circulation is expected
 to spread across northern Mexico and into the southwestern United
 States during the next few days. This could result in heavy rains
 and life-threatening flash flooding in these areas. Please see
 information from your local weather office for more details.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  04/0300Z 19.9N 109.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
  12H  04/1200Z 20.7N 110.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
  24H  05/0000Z 21.7N 111.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
  36H  05/1200Z 22.8N 112.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
  48H  06/0000Z 23.7N 113.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
  72H  07/0000Z 25.3N 115.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
  96H  08/0000Z 27.0N 117.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 120H  09/0000Z 29.0N 118.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown