569 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 111449
 TCDEP5
 HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008
 800 AM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008
  
 THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF NORBERT HAS GRADUALLY DEGRADED THIS
 MORNING...AS THE EYE HAS FILLED IN.  THIS HAS RESULTED IN A DECREASE
 OF THE DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH AGENCIES.  A BLEND OF THE
 DVORAK DATA T AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS...HOWEVER...YIELDS AN
 INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 90 KT...OR CATEGORY TWO STRENGTH. 
 NORBERT IS MOVING ON A MOTION BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST
 AT ABOUT 13 KT...AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
 STATES.  THE HURRICANE IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE
 SOUTHWEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE
 OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MAKE A FINAL
 LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO THIS EVENING.  THE
 TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS SOLUTION...BUT THERE ARE SOME
 DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAST NORBERT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD.  THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND USES
 A BLEND OF THE DIFFERING SPEEDS OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
  
 SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE
 THE CYCLONE...BUT NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT
 MOVES INTO MAINLAND MEXICO.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
 AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO FLY INTO NORBERT THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
 SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF NORBERT'S INTENSITY.  AFTER
 LANDFALL IN NORTHWEST MEXICO...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
 EXPECTED TO QUICKLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
 TERRAIN. HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
 OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
 DAYS.
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      11/1500Z 24.3N 111.9W    90 KT
  12HR VT     12/0000Z 26.5N 110.4W    70 KT
  24HR VT     12/1200Z 30.0N 107.8W    30 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA