809 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 110846
 TCDEP5
 HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008
 200 AM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008
  
 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES NORBERT HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
 DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND HAS RE-STRENGTHENED INTO A MAJOR
 HURRICANE. A 23-NMI DIAMETER ROUND EYE HAS BECOME EVEN MORE DISTINCT
 AND IS EMBEDDED IN THE CENTER OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS. DVORAK
 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T5.5/102 KT FROM TAFB
 AND SAB...BUT SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE NOT FAR FROM BEING CLASSIFIED
 AS T6.0/115 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 100 KT. OUTFLOW IS
 GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS AND IS BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/13. NORBERT REMAINS ON TRACK...
 AND GRADUAL RECURVATURE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
 FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED NOW THAT THE HURRICANE HAS PASSED NORTH
 OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...NORBERT SHOULD
 BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
 AN APPROACHING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY DROPPING
 SOUTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
 FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC
 MODEL CONSENSUS....WHICH CALLS FOR LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
 COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BETWEEN BAHIA MAGDALENA AND SANTA FE.
 
 THE BETTER DEFINED EYE...COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION ENCIRCLING THE
 EYE...IMPROVING OUTFLOW...AND SSTS NEAR 28C SUGGEST THAT NORBERT
 COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BIT MORE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE
 SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER THIS MORNING. AFTER
 LANDFALL...THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN SHOULD INDUCE RAPID WEAKENING...
 BUT NORBERT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT
 MAKES ITS SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND
 MEXICO TONIGHT. JUST HOW STRONG NORBERT WILL BE AT THE SECOND
 LANDFALL WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW STRONG IT IS WHEN IT MAKES
 LANDFALL ALONG THE BAJA COAST THIS MORNING. 
  
 AFTER NORBERT MAKES ITS SECOND LANDFALL...THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
 SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAIN RANGE SHOULD QUICKLY DECOUPLE THE LOW-LEVEL
 CIRCULATION FROM THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. ALTHOUGH
 MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE REMNANT MID-LEVEL VORTICITY
 WILL BECOME STRETCHED OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS...THIS MAY BE
 OVERDONE GIVEN THAT NORBERT IS A STRONGER CYCLONE. AS NORBERT
 CROSSES NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS...
 ITS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD BE ADVECTED WELL AHEAD OF THE
 DISSIPATING CYCLONE CIRCULATION...AND INTERACTION WITH A FRONTAL
 SYSTEM IN THE REGION COULD POSSIBLY CREATE A HEAVY RAINFALL
 SCENARIO NOT UNLIKE THAT OF HURRICANE TICO OF 1983.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      11/0900Z 23.5N 112.5W   100 KT
  12HR VT     11/1800Z 25.5N 111.4W    80 KT...INLAND BAJA
  24HR VT     12/0600Z 28.3N 109.2W    35 KT...INLAND MEXICO
  36HR VT     12/1800Z 31.5N 106.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
  48HR VT     13/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
  
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART