245 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 100834
 TCDEP5
 HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008
 200 AM PDT FRI OCT 10 2008
  
 THE EYE OF NORBERT IS STILL DISTINCT ON IR IMAGES BUT DEEP
 CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE. THERE IS A PATCH OF STRONG
 THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A CURVED BAND ON THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
 UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS. DVORAK T-NUMBERS
 SUGGEST AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
 GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM NOW ON...BUT THE OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO
 REMAIN WARM. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
 SO BUT NORBERT SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN THEREAFTER. IT IS STILL
 FORECAST TO REACH BAJA CALIFORNIA AS A HURRICANE BUT A MORE RAPID
 WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES BAJA CALIFORNIA.  IN
 FACT...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE IN THE
 PORTION OF THE TRACK BETWEEN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MAINLAND MEXICO.
  
 NORBERT IS RIGHT ON TRACK. IT IS STILL MOVING TOWARD THE
 NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF
 A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE HURRICANE SHOULD
 SOON TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY
 FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
 REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT MAINLY DURING THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS...
 INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. ALL MODELS BRING THE
 CORE OF THE HURRICANE TO THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT
 36 HOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS
 THAT NORBERT WILL BECOME DECOUPLED DUE TO SHEAR AND THAT IS WHEN
 THE MODELS DIFFER IN THE FORWARD SPEED.  HOWEVER...BY
 THEN...NORBERT SHOULD BE A WEAKENING CYCLONE WITH THE MID-LEVEL
 CENTER RACING NORTHEASTWARD. MOISTURE FROM NORBERT COULD BRING
 RAINS TO PORTION OF WESTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      10/0900Z 19.7N 113.4W    75 KT
  12HR VT     10/1800Z 20.8N 113.7W    75 KT
  24HR VT     11/0600Z 22.8N 113.0W    70 KT
  36HR VT     11/1800Z 24.6N 111.8W    65 KT
  48HR VT     12/0600Z 27.5N 109.5W    35 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     13/0600Z 31.5N 105.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
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