105 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 081432
 TCDEP5
 HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008
 800 AM PDT WED OCT 08 2008
  
 NORBERT UNDERWENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVERNIGHT...AND THE CYCLONE
 NOW HAS AN IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONSISTING OF A
 WELL-DEFINED EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION.  THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 110 KT BASED ON A COMPROMISE
 BETWEEN THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 102 KT AND OBJECTIVE
 DVORAK ESTIMATES NEAR 125 KT.  WITH THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT
 EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO...INTENSITY
 WILL BE LARGELY CONTROLLED BY THE INNER-CORE STRUCTURAL EVOLUTION
 IN THE SHORT-TERM.  FORECASTING SUCH INNER-CORE CHANGES IS
 DIFFICULT BUT GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT NORBERT COULD GET A LITTLE
 STRONGER...PERHAPS REACHING CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH.  IN ABOUT 36-48
 HOURS...VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND SSTS GRADUALLY
 DECREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. ADDITIONALLY...NORBERT COULD BE
 NEGATIVELY IMPACTED BY RELATIVELY STABLE AIR TO ITS NORTHWEST.
 STILL...NORBERT COULD APPROACH BAJA CALIFORNIA AS A HURRICANE...AND
 INTERESTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA
 SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
  
 NORBERT CONTINUES TO MOVE AROUND A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
 SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES RESULTING IN A WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING...
 OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS.  A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS
 EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE CYCLONE REACHES THE
 WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.  THEREAFTER...A TURN TOWARD THE
 NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
 AS A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
 STATES AND ADJACENT PACIFIC.  WHILE ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
 FORECAST THIS TROUGH TO DEVELOP...THEY DISAGREE SOMEWHAT ON
 NORBERT'S STRENGTH...AND HENCE ITS VERTICAL DEPTH...WHEN IT REACHES
 THE TROUGH.  MOST OF THE TRACK MODEL SHOW A DEEP CYCLONE RESPONDING
 TO THE TROUGH BY ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.
 HOWEVER...THE GFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS STILL SHOW NORBERT RAPIDLY
 BECOMING A SHALLOW SYSTEM AS IT NEARS THE BAJA PENINSULA RESULTING
 IN A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED OR EVEN STALLING IN THE VICINITY OF
 BAJA CALIFORNIA.  SINCE THESE HIGHLY-RESPECTED MODELS CANNOT BE
 IGNORED...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
 DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AT DAY 4.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      08/1500Z 16.3N 110.6W   110 KT
  12HR VT     09/0000Z 16.8N 111.5W   115 KT
  24HR VT     09/1200Z 17.7N 112.6W   115 KT
  36HR VT     10/0000Z 19.0N 113.3W   110 KT
  48HR VT     10/1200Z 20.6N 113.3W   100 KT
  72HR VT     11/1200Z 24.5N 111.5W    85 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     12/1200Z 30.0N 107.5W    35 KT...INLAND
 120HR VT     13/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER RHOME