553 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 072033
 TCDEP5
 HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008
 200 PM PDT TUE OCT 07 2008
 
 NORBERT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS SUGGESTED BY THE INCREASED
 ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN AND THE HINTS OF AN EYE ON
 VISIBLE IMAGES.  AN SSMIS IMAGE FROM 1513 UTC SHOWED A BANDING-
 TYPE...PARTIALLY-CLOSED...EYE.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 75 KT
 IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. 
 CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS BECOMING WELL-DEFINED OVER MOST OF THE
 CIRCULATION.  CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AS THE HURRICANE
 SHOULD REMAIN IN A WARM WATER AND LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
 FOR THE NEAR FUTURE.  MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR
 STRENGTHENING WITH THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS BEING THE MOST
 AGGRESSIVE.  ALSO...THE SHIPS MODEL NOW SHOWS MORE INTENSIFICATION
 THAN EARLIER RUNS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CONSERVATIVELY
 BRINGS NORBERT TO CATEGORY TWO STATUS...BUT IT IS CERTAINLY
 POSSIBLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE.  LATE IN THE
 FORECAST PERIOD... INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD
 INDUCE WEAKENING.
 
 NORBERT HAS MOVED A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
 AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NEAR 285/8.  THE TRACK FORECAST
 PHILOSOPHY REMAINS BASICALLY THE SAME.  IN 2-3 DAYS...NORBERT IS
 PREDICTED TO TURN NORTHWARD INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. 
 AFTERWARDS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO TURN
 NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VIGOROUS 500 MB TROUGH
 THAT DROPS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  AS WAS THE CASE ON
 THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE...NOT ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS BRING
 NORBERT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA.  NOTABLY...THE
 GFS WEAKENS NORBERT CONSIDERABLY SO THAT IT DOES NOT RESPOND TO THE
 MID-TROPOSPHERIC STEERING...RESULTING IN THE SYSTEM BEING ENTRAINED
 SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC CIRCULATION OF A
 STRENGTHENING CYCLONE TO THE EAST OF NORBERT.  WHETHER OR NOT THE
 EASTERN SYSTEM ENDS UP DEVELOPING...THE WEAKENING OF NORBERT
 DEPICTED BY THE GFS SEEMS UNREALISTIC.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO A SELECTIVE CONSENSUS OF DYNAMICAL
 MODELS THAT EXCLUDES THE GFS IN THIS CASE.  THIS REPRESENTS ONLY A
 SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.
 
 IT IS PREMATURE TO SAY WHAT KIND OF IMPACT NORBERT MAY HAVE ON BAJA
 CALIFORNIA.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      07/2100Z 15.2N 108.1W    75 KT
  12HR VT     08/0600Z 15.5N 109.4W    80 KT
  24HR VT     08/1800Z 16.1N 110.9W    85 KT
  36HR VT     09/0600Z 17.0N 112.1W    90 KT
  48HR VT     09/1800Z 18.0N 113.1W    90 KT
  72HR VT     10/1800Z 21.0N 113.7W    85 KT
  96HR VT     11/1800Z 24.5N 112.0W    75 KT...ON COAST
 120HR VT     12/1800Z 28.0N 110.0W    60 KT...INLAND
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH