982 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 052041
 TCDEP5
 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008
 200 PM PDT SUN OCT 05 2008
  
 AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1252 UTC CONFIRMED THAT NORBERT'S
 INTENSITY WAS NEAR 50 KT AT THAT TIME.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
 HELD AT THAT VALUE SINCE THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED
 SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND DVORAK INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES REMAIN 45 KT FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB.  NORBERT IS FORECAST
 TO BE OVER WARM WATERS AND WITHIN A RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR
 ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT
 SHOULD ALLOW INTENSIFICATION.  HOWEVER...THERE CONTINUES TO BE
 CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS INTENSITY MODELS WITH THE
 GFDL AND HWRF FORECASTING NORBERT TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WHILE
 THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW CONSIDERABLY LESS STRENGTHENING. 
 THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN BEFORE BUT IS STILL
 SLIGHTLY BELOW THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. 
  
 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS A
 LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED YIELDING AN INITIAL
 MOTION ESTIMATE OF 275/8.  THE SHORT-TERM TRACK WILL BE GOVERNED BY
 A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM MEXICO TO THE
 NORTH OF NORBERT.  SINCE MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS NOW FORECAST
 THIS RIDGE TO REMAIN LARGELY IN PLACE...A CONTINUED WEST-
 NORTHWESTWARD HEADING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. BY DAYS 4
 AND 5...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF
 THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE TRACK
 GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF FORWARD SPEED.  SINCE THE
 GUIDANCE HAS NOT DEMONSTRATED GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...ONLY
 SMALL CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THE
 EXTENDED TIME RANGES. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      05/2100Z 14.4N 103.1W    50 KT
  12HR VT     06/0600Z 14.6N 104.1W    60 KT
  24HR VT     06/1800Z 14.9N 105.3W    65 KT
  36HR VT     07/0600Z 15.3N 106.4W    70 KT
  48HR VT     07/1800Z 15.9N 107.8W    80 KT
  72HR VT     08/1800Z 17.5N 110.0W    80 KT
  96HR VT     09/1800Z 19.5N 112.0W    70 KT
 120HR VT     10/1800Z 22.5N 114.0W    60 KT
  
 $$
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