678 
 WTPA44 PHFO 150244
 TCDCP4
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP182015
 500 PM HST WED OCT 14 2015
 
 NORA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...BUT VERY SLOWLY. THE LOW CLOUD LINES
 AROUND THE CENTER OF NORA HAVE BECOME LESS TIGHTLY WRAPPED...MORE
 SPIRAL SHAPED THAN CIRCULAR...OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS BUT
 CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FORM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THERE
 HAVE BEEN NO RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES OVER THE SYSTEM.
 SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES WERE 1.5/25 KNOTS FROM HFO...
 JTWC AND SAB...WHILE THE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS WAS
 2.3/33 KNOTS. I HAVE KEPT THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 25 KNOTS.
 
 THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS REMAINED EXPOSED MOST OF THE
 DAY...ALLOWING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FIX POSITIONS. THE FORWARD
 MOTION HAS BEEN 325 DEGREES AT 5 KT FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE
 FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT...FARTHER NORTH...THAN
 THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE RECENT MOTION.
 
 NORA IS PART OF A TROUGH IN THE EASTERLY TRADE-WIND FLOW SOUTH OF
 THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO THE TROUGH WILL
 BULGE NORTH INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND THE DEPRESSION WILL
 CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD IN THIS TROUGH. AFTER 36
 HOURS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REBUILD AND NORA WILL MOVE OFF TO
 THE WEST SOUTHWEST.
 
 STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...VWS...CONTINUES OVER NORA WITH SHIPS
 AND UW-CIMSS BOTH SHOWING ABOUT 36 KNOTS OF SHEAR FROM THE
 SOUTHWEST. THE DEPRESSION HAS PROBABLY SURVIVED ONLY BECAUSE IT HAS
 REMAINED OVER VERY WARM 28 DEGREE CELSIUS WATER. THE VWS IS
 FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER 35 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. WE EXPECT THAT WILL BE
 ENOUGH TO SHEAR AWAY THE REMAINING CONVECTION NEAR THE DEPRESSION
 AND THAT NORA WILL WEAKEN TO A POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW BY
 TOMORROW. 
 
 THE WIND FIELD AROUND NORA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN BUT
 THE MOISTURE FIELD WILL LIKELY HELP BOOST RAINFALL OVER THE MAIN
 HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEE THE PUBLIC FORECASTS FROM
 THE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE IN HONOLULU FOR DETAILS.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  15/0300Z 15.5N 151.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
  12H  15/1200Z 16.0N 151.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
  24H  16/0000Z 16.6N 152.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  16/1200Z 16.8N 152.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  17/0000Z 16.7N 154.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  18/0000Z 16.0N 156.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER DONALDSON