435 
 WTPA44 PHFO 142051
 TCDCP4
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP182015
 1100 AM HST WED OCT 14 2015
 
 NORA IS BARELY HOLDING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW LEVEL
 CIRCULATION CENTER /LLCC/ APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN DISRUPTED BY THE
 PERSISTENT BURSTS OF VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING TO THE
 NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. THIS DISRUPTION MAY
 BE DUE TO CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...OR TWO STRONG GRAVITY
 WAVES THAT EMANATED FROM THE CONVECTIVE BURSTS OVER THE LAST 12
 HOURS...OR BOTH. THE SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN
 UNANIMOUSLY AT 1.5 AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING LOWERED TO 25
 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. 
 
 THE DISRUPTION TO THE LLCC MAKES THE INITIAL MOTION A BIT
 UNCERTAIN. A LONGER TERM REPRESENTATIVE AVERAGE FOR THIS ADVISORY IS
 290/3. NORA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A
 BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF HAWAII...AND THE
 EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KT IS
 EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER NORA...SO AT SOME POINT SOON THE DEEP
 CONVECTION WILL EITHER BECOME DETACHED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CENTER...
 OR BECOME WEAK AND INTERMITTENT. AT THAT POINT NORA WILL BECOME A
 SHALLOW POST-TROPICAL LOW AND STEERED COMPLETELY BY THE LOW LEVEL
 TRADE WIND BACKGROUND FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACKS A
 REMNANT LOW LEVEL CENTER THROUGH 72 HOURS...IT SEEMS POSSIBLE THAT
 IT MAY DISSIPATE EVEN SOONER GIVEN THE RECENT DISRUPTION. 
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  14/2100Z 15.1N 151.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
  12H  15/0600Z 15.3N 151.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
  24H  15/1800Z 15.6N 152.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  16/0600Z 15.8N 153.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  16/1800Z 15.8N 155.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  17/1800Z 15.4N 156.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECAST R BALLARD