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 639 
 WTNT41 KNHC 011500
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
 1100 AM EDT THU NOV 01 2007
  
 DATA PHONED IN FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
 INVESTIGATING NOEL INCLUDE PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 53 KT AND
 SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF 51 KT.  THESE DATA SUPPORT THE CURRENT
 INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KT.  THE CENTER FIXES HAVE BEEN BOUNCING
 ABOUT IN RESPONSE TO CONVECTIVE BURSTS...BUT OVERALL INDICATE THAT
 THE TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST HAS BEGUN.  THE INITIAL MOTION
 ESTIMATE IS 020/8.
 
 THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  MID-
 TO UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ADVANCING TOWARD NOEL FROM THE
 GULF OF MEXICO...AND THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NOEL
 NORTHNORTHEASTWARD.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
 HEADING BUT LESS SO ON THE SPEED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS
 A GFS/GFDL/HWRF BLEND.
 
 WITH THE RECENT JUMP OF THE CENTER CLOSER TO THE CONVECTION...THERE
 IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 12-18
 HOURS...BEFORE THE WIND SHEAR BECOMES PROHIBITIVE.  HOWEVER...
 BAROCLINIC ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
 STRENGTHENING AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.
 
 AS NOEL IS EXPECTED TO EDGE AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
 AFTERNOON...IT SHOULD SOON BE POSSIBLE TO LOWER THE TROPICAL STORM
 WARNING.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      01/1500Z 24.5N  77.8W    50 KT
  12HR VT     02/0000Z 25.8N  76.9W    60 KT
  24HR VT     02/1200Z 28.4N  74.9W    55 KT
  36HR VT     03/0000Z 32.0N  72.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  48HR VT     03/1200Z 36.0N  69.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  72HR VT     04/1200Z 46.0N  61.0W    70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     05/1200Z 56.5N  50.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 120HR VT     06/1200Z 67.0N  25.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  
 $$
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN
  
 
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