723 
 WTNT21 KNHC 301437
 TCMAT1
 TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
 1500 UTC TUE OCT 30 2007
  
 AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS
 DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...BUT
 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
 NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
  
 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
 OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO.
  
 INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.
 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
 FLORIDA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
  
 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N  77.4W AT 30/1500Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
  
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  10 KT
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
 34 KT.......150NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.
 12 FT SEAS..200NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
  
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N  77.4W AT 30/1500Z
 AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N  77.1W
  
 FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 21.4N  78.3W...INLAND OVER CUBA
 MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 34 KT...150NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 22.5N  78.7W...NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA
 MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 34 KT...150NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 24.0N  78.6W...OVER WATER
 MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
 34 KT...150NE 150SE   0SW  50NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.2N  77.4W
 MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
 34 KT...150NE 150SE   0SW  75NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 32.5N  71.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
 MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 50 KT...100NE 150SE   0SW 150NW.
 34 KT...200NE 250SE   0SW 250NW.
  
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
 ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 39.0N  64.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
 MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 46.5N  58.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
 MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
  
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N  77.4W
  
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KNABB