319 
 WTNT21 KNHC 282040
 TCMAT1
 TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
 2100 UTC SUN OCT 28 2007
  
 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
 THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD.
  
 AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI HAS
 BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI.
  
 AT 500 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
 STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
 CUBA IN THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GUANTANAMO...
 AND HOLGUIN.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
 POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
  
 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.
  
 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N  71.9W AT 28/2100Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
  
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT   4 KT
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
 50 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 34 KT.......100NE   0SE   0SW  75NW.
 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
  
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N  71.9W AT 28/2100Z
 AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N  71.8W
  
 FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 17.9N  72.8W
 MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 50 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
 34 KT...100NE   0SE   0SW 100NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 19.1N  74.0W
 MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 50 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
 34 KT...100NE   0SE   0SW 100NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 20.2N  75.0W...INLAND OVER EASTERN CUBA
 MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.
 34 KT...100NE 100SE   0SW 100NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 21.4N  75.8W...OVER WATER
 MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 34 KT...100NE  75SE   0SW 100NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 23.5N  76.0W
 MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 50 KT... 50NE  50SE  25SW  50NW.
 34 KT...100NE 100SE  50SW 100NW.
  
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
 ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 26.0N  75.0W
 MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 29.0N  73.5W
 MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
  
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N  71.9W
  
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KNABB