WTPZ44 KNHC 200240
Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192018
900 PM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018
Recent microwave images and surface observations suggest that the
center of the depression is very near the coast of northwestern
Mexico, just south-southeast of Guaymas. However, much of the
associated convection is already inland over northwestern Mexico.
The initial intensity is lowered to 25 kt since the cloud tops are
not as cold as they were earlier today when an ASCAT pass showed
peak winds in the 25-30 kt range, and much of the circulation is
already interacting with the mountainous terrain of mainland Mexico.
Since the center will be moving inland over the rugged terrain of
northwestern Mexico very soon, additional weakening is forecast and
the depression is expected to on Thursday.
The main hazard associated with this system is expected to be heavy
rainfall. Widespread amounts of 5 to 10 inches and isolated amounts
up to 15 inches are forecast in the Mexican states of Sonora and
northern Sinaloa. These rains could cause life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides. Moisture associated with the depression, and
its remnants, will also lead to areas of heavy rain and a heightened
risk of flash flooding in the southwestern United States tonight and
Thursday, and in the southern Plains beginning on Friday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0300Z 27.3N 110.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 28.5N 109.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
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