Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 507 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 200240
 TCDEP4
 
 Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number   3
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192018
 900 PM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018
 
 Recent microwave images and surface observations suggest that the
 center of the depression is very near the coast of northwestern
 Mexico, just south-southeast of Guaymas.  However, much of the
 associated convection is already inland over northwestern Mexico.
 The initial intensity is lowered to 25 kt since the cloud tops are
 not as cold as they were earlier today when an ASCAT pass showed
 peak winds in the 25-30 kt range, and much of the circulation is
 already interacting with the mountainous terrain of mainland Mexico.
 Since the center will be moving inland over the rugged terrain of
 northwestern Mexico very soon, additional weakening is forecast and
 the depression is expected to on Thursday.
 
 The main hazard associated with this system is expected to be heavy
 rainfall.  Widespread amounts of 5 to 10 inches and isolated amounts
 up to 15 inches are forecast in the Mexican states of Sonora and
 northern Sinaloa.  These rains could cause life-threatening flash
 flooding and mudslides. Moisture associated with the depression, and
 its remnants, will also lead to areas of heavy rain and a heightened
 risk of flash flooding in the southwestern United States tonight and
 Thursday, and in the southern Plains beginning on Friday.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  20/0300Z 27.3N 110.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
  12H  20/1200Z 28.5N 109.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
  24H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi
 
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for NINETEEN-E

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman