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 699 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 192051
 TCDEP4
 
 Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number   2
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192018
 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018
 
 Satellite imagery has been showing an impressive band of strong
 convection around the eastern semicircle of the depression over the
 last few hours as the center of circulation has edged a little
 farther away from the Baja Peninsula. A timely 1650Z ASCAT showed
 some 25 to 30 kt winds within the band of colder convective tops,
 and since that time there has been perhaps some slightly better
 defined banding features. The initial intensity will be set at 30
 kt based on this information.
 
 The forecast reasoning has changed little since the last advisory.
 The depression will lift north over the next 6 hours and a landfall
 is expected over northwest Mexico within the next 12 hours as the
 system comes under the influence of a mid- to upper-level trough
 moving into the western United States. This will not afford much
 time for the system to develop despite being over very warm SSTs and
 within a low-shear environment. The depression will rapidly
 dissipate early Thursday as it moves inland over the high terrain of
 the Sierra-Madre Occidental.
 
 The main hazard with the system will be heavy rainfall, with 5-10
 inch areal average amounts and local amounts to 15 inches leading to
 life-threatening flash flooding and landslides near the track of the
 depression. Moisture associated with the depression and eventually
 its remnants will also lead to areas of heavy rain and a heightened
 risk of flash flooding in the Southwest United States today through
 Thursday, and in the southern Plains beginning Friday.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  19/2100Z 27.0N 111.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  20/0600Z 28.3N 111.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
  24H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Orrison/Blake
 
 
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