WTPZ44 KNHC 191455
Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192018
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 AM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018
Satellite images show that an area of low pressure has developed
over the Gulf of California overnight within an inverted trough.
This is also supported by 24-hour pressure falls of 3.7 mb at Loreto
just west of its center at 1300 UTC. Microwave imagery shows
curved convective banding features to the east and north of the
center, suggesting organized convection. Therefore the system
is being declared a tropical depression with 25-kt maximum sustained
winds. Infrared imagery shows minimal vertical wind shear over the
system, with a slight restriction to the outflow on its western
side, which is confirmed by recent SHIPS output. However, the
system has only 12 hours or less over water, and it is expected to
move inland without significant strengthening.
An upper-level trough moving into the western United States is
expected to steer the depression north or north-northeast across the
Gulf of California into northwest Mexico tonight, which is well
advertised by the track guidance. The depression is expected to
dissipate in the 24-36 hour time frame due to steep terrain.
The main impact with the system is expected to be heavy rainfall,
with 5-10 inch areal average amounts and local amounts to 15 inches
leading to life-threatening flash flooding and landslides near the
track of the depression.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/1500Z 26.3N 110.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 28.0N 110.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 20/1200Z 30.5N 109.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
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