721 
 WTNT44 KNHC 012112
 TCDAT4
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005
  
 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS ESSENTIALLY
 EVAPORATED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... THE LAST COUPLE OF IMAGES ARE
 SHOWING A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -70C HAS
 DEVELOPED VERY NEAR THE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  AN EARLIER
 QUIKSCAT OVERPASS REVEALED A LARGE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD THAT WILL
 LIKELY TAKE ANOTHER 6 HOURS OR SO TO SPIN DOWN... SO THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 30 KT... ESPECIALLY SINCE DEEP
 CONVECTION MAY BE STARTING TO REFIRE NEAR THE CENTER. 
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/07.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
 CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. TD-19 IS
 EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD
 AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW FOR THE
 NEXT 72 HOURS... AND THEN TURN SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD... ASSUMING THE
 SYSTEM SURVIVES THAT LONG AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE GFDL MODEL IS
 THE FASTEST OF ALL OF THE MODELS AND RECURVES THE CYCLONE QUICKLY
 TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST AFTER 72 HOURS. HOWEVER... THE GFDL MAKES
 THE SYSTEM A VERTICALLY DEEP 80-KT HURRICANE BY 96 HOURS... DESPITE
 40-50 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
 PREVIOUS FORECAST... AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS...
 MINUS THE GFDL CONTRIBUTION AFTER 72 HOURS SINCE IT APPEARS
 UNLIKELY THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH.
  
 ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
 INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO WHILE THE
 SYSTEM REMAINS OVER 26-27C SSTS. BY 48 HOURS... UPPER-LEVEL
 SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE AT LEAST 25 KT AND TO
 GRADUALLY INCREASE TO NEAR 40 KT BY 72 HOURS. THE INCREASING
 VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD CREATE AT LEAST SLOW
 WEAKENING... BUT THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS AS
 INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.
  
 FORECASTER STEWART
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      01/2100Z 14.7N  34.2W    30 KT
  12HR VT     02/0600Z 16.0N  34.9W    35 KT
  24HR VT     02/1800Z 17.8N  35.7W    40 KT
  36HR VT     03/0600Z 19.5N  36.5W    40 KT
  48HR VT     03/1800Z 21.2N  37.1W    35 KT
  72HR VT     04/1800Z 24.2N  37.4W    30 KT
  96HR VT     05/1800Z 26.5N  37.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 120HR VT     06/1800Z 29.0N  35.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  
 $$