315 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 121439
 TCDEP4
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092009
 800 AM PDT WED AUG 12 2009
  
 THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE THIS MORNING WITH THE TROPICAL
 DEPRESSION...WHICH IS MAINTAINING JUST ENOUGH CONVECTION TO KEEP IT
 FROM BEING CONSIDERED A REMNANT LOW.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
 THAT THE IMMEDIATE ENVIRONMENT OF THE CYCLONE IS FAIRLY DRY...AND
 WHILE THE SHEAR IS LIGHT...THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SYSTEM
 APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT CONVERGENT.  NEVERTHELESS...THE STATISTICAL
 INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS STRENGTHEN THE SYSTEM NEAR THE END OF THE
 FORECAST PERIOD...AS DOES THE GFDL.  IN THE CASE OF SHIPS THE
 DRIVING PREDICTOR IS THE SST POTENTIAL...BUT THIS IS IN FACT NO
 LESS FAVORABLE NOW THAN IT WILL BE IN FIVE DAYS...SO I AM
 SKEPTICAL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL STILL REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY
 OF SOME STRENGTHENING AND IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AID ICON.  
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/12.  THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED
 TO CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO
 MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.  THE TRACK BECOMES
 LESS CLEAR BEYOND THAT POINT...AS THE CYCLONE NEARS THE WESTERN
 EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ENCOUNTERS SOME UPPER-LEVEL
 SOUTHERLY FLOW.  OF COURSE...THE SYSTEM MIGHT NOT BE SIGNIFICANT
 ENOUGH OR DEEP ENOUGH TO FEEL THESE INFLUENCES.  THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED BUT NOT
 MUCH CHANGE IN DIRECTION...AND IS CLOSEST TO A BLEND OF THE UKMET
 AND HWRF.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF AND GFDL SHOW AN
 INTERACTION BETWEEN THE DEPRESSION AND THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO ITS
 EAST...AND CONSEQUENTLY INDICATE A MUCH SHARPER SLOWDOWN AND TURN
 TO THE NORTH.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      12/1500Z 14.6N 132.6W    25 KT
  12HR VT     13/0000Z 14.4N 134.2W    25 KT
  24HR VT     13/1200Z 14.0N 136.2W    25 KT
  36HR VT     14/0000Z 13.5N 138.0W    30 KT
  48HR VT     14/1200Z 13.2N 139.5W    30 KT
  72HR VT     15/1200Z 13.0N 142.5W    35 KT
  96HR VT     16/1200Z 13.0N 145.0W    40 KT
 120HR VT     17/1200Z 13.0N 148.0W    40 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN