721 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 241500
 TCDEP4
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
 8 AM PDT TUE AUG 24 2004
 
 THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUED TO BE OFFSET FROM
 THE AREA OF CONVECTION TO ITS NORTH AS INDICATED BY CONVENTIONAL IR
 IMAGES.  AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 ISSUED BY SAB SUPPORTS AN
 INITIAL INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM THIS MORNING AT 30 KNOTS.  
 
 THE TRACK FORECAST HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM THE
 PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE REASONABLY SLOW MOVING
 WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 315/03...JUST SOUTH OF A COL IN THE MID-
 LEVEL FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MOVES THE DEPRESSION ON A
 NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS BEFORE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
 BUILDS TO ITS NORTH...LIMITING ITS NORTHWARD MOTION.  THE GLOBAL
 MODELS ARE GENERALLY MORE SOUTHERLY WITH THE TRACK THAN THE NHC
 MODEL SUITE.  AT THIS TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THE
 RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH AND STEER THE SYSTEM ON A WESTERLY
 TRACK AFTER 24 HOURS. 
 
 THE SLOW-MOVING DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY OVER
 THE FIRST 24 HOURS UNDER WEAK SHEAR AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE
 TEMPERATURES.  THE DEPRESSION SHOULD ENCOUNTER INCREASED
 SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND 36 HOURS.  THIS INCREASED SHEAR
 COUPLED WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 26C SHOULD WEAKEN THE
 SYSTEM.
 
 CLARK
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      24/1500Z 18.7N 124.3W    30 KT
  12HR VT     25/0000Z 19.1N 124.7W    30 KT
  24HR VT     25/1200Z 19.4N 125.8W    35 KT
  36HR VT     26/0000Z 19.5N 127.0W    35 KT
  48HR VT     26/1200Z 19.5N 128.5W    30 KT
  72HR VT     27/1200Z 19.6N 132.0W    30 KT
  96HR VT     28/1200Z 19.6N 135.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     29/1200Z 19.6N 139.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
  
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