399 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 240232
 TCDEP4
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 PM PDT MON AUG 23 2004
  
 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
 OVERALL CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF TD-9E DURING THE EVENING AND
 THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS OVER
 MARGINALLY WARM WATER AND NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF SOME MID-TO
 UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IN
 ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE FRANK
 APPEARS TO BE APPROACHING THE DEPRESSION FROM THE EAST.  THESE
 FACTORS SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ONLY
 CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM WITHIN 36
 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS THE STORM
 ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATER.
  
 AFTER MEANDERING DURING THE PAST 12-24 HOURS...TD-9E NOW APPEARS TO
 BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
 360/04. TD-9E IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
 TROUGH WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE DEPRESSION MOVING GENERALLY NORTHWARD
 OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.  BEYOND 24 HOURS...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
 WEST IS FORECAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES WEST AND A MIDDLE LEVEL
 RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IF THERE IS
 ANY BINARY INTERACTION WITH HURRICANE FRANK TO THE EAST...AND THIS
 FORECAST ASSUMES MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE TRACK. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
 FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD AND IS IN BETWEEN THE
 DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE MEDIUM BAM MODEL. 
  
 FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      24/0300Z 18.2N 123.6W    25 KT
  12HR VT     24/1200Z 18.3N 123.7W    30 KT
  24HR VT     25/0000Z 18.7N 124.0W    35 KT
  36HR VT     25/1200Z 19.2N 125.0W    40 KT
  48HR VT     26/0000Z 19.4N 126.4W    35 KT
  72HR VT     27/0000Z 19.5N 129.0W    35 KT
  96HR VT     28/0000Z 19.5N 132.0W    30 KT
 120HR VT     29/0000Z 19.5N 136.0W    25 KT
  
  
 $$