626 
 WTPA41 PHFO 010243
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP092015
 500 PM HST THU DEC 31 2015
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-C REMAINS RATHER UNORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON
 WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE
 FIX POSITIONS FROM PHFO AND SAB WERE ABOUT 70 MILES APART
 SO CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL FIX POSITION IS RATHER LOW. A PARTIAL
 ASCAT PASS INDICATED THAT THE SYSTEM MAY BE ELONGATED EAST TO WEST
 RESEMBLING MORE OF A TROUGH INSTEAD OF A CLOSED LOW. THE INITIAL
 POSITION FOR THIS PACKAGE IS CLOSE TO PHFO WHICH LIES JUST TO THE
 EAST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. THE MOST RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
 SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 2.0/30 KT FROM SAB AND
 PHFO. BASED ON THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AS WELL AS ITS CURRENT
 APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WE WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM AT 30 KT
 WITH THIS ADVISORY.
 
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC WITH A WIDE RANGE GIVEN
 FROM MODEL GUIDANCE. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
 WITH BOTH SHIPS AND UW-CIMSS INDICATING SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 20
 KT OVER THE SYSTEM. SHIPS INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE IN SHEAR VALUES
 OVER THE COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A BIT LESS SHEAR INDICATED BEYOND DAY
 3. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER WARM WATER THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
 PERIOD. THE LATEST FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
 FORECAST KEEPING THE SYSTEM A DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
 SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THERE
 IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE WITHIN A FEW
 DAYS. THE GFS MODEL KEEPS THE SYSTEM PRETTY MUCH IN A STEADY STATE
 THROUGH DAY 5 WHILE THE ECMWF WEAKENS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY OVER THE
 NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 295/04 KT. AS
 WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...FORECAST TRACK GUIDANCE FOR NINE-C
 REMAINS UNRELIABLE. THERE REMAINS A WIDE SPREAD IN TRACK
 GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH INTENSITY
 GUIDANCE. THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE
 PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A SLOW WEST NORTHWEST MOTION EXPECTED THROUGH
 DAY 5.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  01/0300Z  2.8N 178.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  01/1200Z  2.9N 178.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  02/0000Z  3.1N 179.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  02/1200Z  3.2N 179.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  03/0000Z  3.5N 179.4E   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  04/0000Z  4.1N 177.7E   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  05/0000Z  4.7N 175.9E   35 KT  40 MPH
 120H  06/0000Z  5.3N 174.0E   40 KT  45 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BURKE